SOL’s Last Dip? Analyst Sees $500 Target This Cycle

TL;DR

• Wyckoff chart shows SOL moving from Phase D to Phase E, hinting at breakout potential.
• SOL must hold $177–$180 support; failure risks $150, while bounce targets $240–$250.
• ETF filings and institutional focus grow, though markets give only a 34% chance of new highs.

Wyckoff Structure Points to Final Phase

Solana (SOL) is trading at $202 with a daily turnover of $11.19 billion. The token has regained 3% in the past 24 hours, but has dumped by over 15% over the past week. Analysts suggest the decline may be part of a longer structure that still points upward.

ZYN posted a chart presenting SOL crossing the phases of Wyckoff accumulation. According to the chart, Solana is transitioning from Phase D to Phase E, which is based on the Son of Wyckoff theory, a concept where markets tend to break above. The token has traded between $120 and $210, with the current dip portrayed as the final shakeout before a run-up.

Source: ZYN/X

ZYN commented,

Key Levels and Market Signals

Wise Crypto shared a separate chart showing SOL trading at a critical support zone around $180–$177. This range matches the lower boundary of a rising channel that has guided the price action since March.

Notably, the Stochastic RSI indicator is now in oversold territory, often seen before relief rallies. Wise Crypto noted that if this support holds, the asset could rebound toward $240–$250. They also warned that if the zone breaks, the next major support lies near $150. The analyst described the current setup as a “make-or-break moment” for SOL and suggested traders wait for confirmation before entering.

ETF Filings Bring Institutional Focus

ETF filings are also adding attention to Solana. Canary Capital has updated its S-1 registration for its Solana ETF, which plans to both hold and stake SOL through a partnership with Marinade Finance. The fund aims to provide investors with exposure to Solana while also passing along staking rewards.

As reported by CryptoPotato, Grayscale’s proposed Solana ETF faces its first deadline on October 10. The outcome could determine whether institutional flows begin to support Solana in the same way they did for Bitcoin and Ethereum after spot ETFs gained approval.

Yet, it maintains a cautious stance. Data from Polymarket shows traders pegging the probability that Solana would have a new all-time high in 2025 at just 34%. ETF filings and technical structures have fed optimism, but all the same, the sentiment expresses doubt about how fast Solana can make the move up.

Source: Polymarket

For now, Solana sits at a key point where both technical and regulatory factors will shape its next move.

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