QCP Capital: The market is shifting from panic to adjustment, and the Fed's interest rate cuts may be limited

PANews reported on September 24th that QCP Capital analysts believe market sentiment has shifted from panic to recalibration. The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point insurance rate cut re-started easing, but Powell framed it as risk management rather than the start of a deep easing cycle. With economic activity remaining robust and core inflation near 3%, future rate cuts are likely to remain shallow unless economic growth slows significantly.

Long-term yields rose due to term premiums and supply pressures, pushing stocks to new highs and gold to a record high. Gold briefly broke through $3,700 before retreating. The dollar rebounded alongside U.S. Treasuries, indicating that a one-way short position on the dollar is no longer risk-free.

Analysts believe that the Federal Reserve's policy may remain tight, with room for adjustment relative to the lower neutral rate, which could lower the threshold for further easing. However, consumer resilience and slow hiring and firing dynamics in the labor market allow the Fed to act cautiously. Furthermore, with Europe and Japan no longer significantly outperforming the United States, the dollar may have bottomed out, while gold and Bitcoin reflect market skepticism about the return of hawkish policies.