Super Micro (SMCI) Stock Surges 19% After Earnings — Is the Worst Finally Over?

TLDR

• SMCI posted Q3 adjusted EPS of 84 cents, beating the 62-cent estimate, but revenue of $10.2B missed the $12.4B forecast
• Q4 revenue guidance of $11B–$12.5B came in above Wall Street’s $11.07B estimate
• Adjusted Q4 EPS guidance of 65–79 cents topped analyst expectations of 55 cents
• Stock rose ~19% in after-hours trading following the results
• The co-founder smuggling case has not affected vendor relationships with Nvidia, AMD, or Intel

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Super Micro Computer stock jumped roughly 19% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company posted mixed third-quarter results but delivered an upbeat outlook.

Super Micro Computer, Inc., SMCI

Adjusted EPS came in at 84 cents, well above the 62-cent analyst estimate. Revenue, however, was $10.24 billion — a miss against the $12.33 billion Wall Street had penciled in.

That revenue figure still represents a 122% jump from the same quarter last year, when Super Micro posted $4.6 billion in sales.

For Q4, the company guided revenue of $11 billion to $12.5 billion, above the consensus estimate of $11.07 billion. Adjusted EPS is expected between 65 and 79 cents, topping the 55-cent estimate.

Full-year revenue guidance came in at $38.9 billion to $40.4 billion, slightly below analyst expectations of $40.9 billion.

Vendors Unaffected by Legal Trouble

CFO David Weigand told analysts on the earnings call that vendor relationships with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel have not been affected by the Justice Department charges filed in March.

The DOJ charged Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan “Wally” Liaw and two others in March over an alleged scheme to smuggle U.S.-assembled servers to China. Super Micro was not named as a defendant and said it is cooperating with authorities.

The company has also launched its own independent investigation into the matter.

Super Micro’s stock fell 33% on March 20 following those charges, adding to a long slide from its all-time closing high of $118.81 on March 13, 2024. The stock is still down 77% from that peak.

AI Demand Drives Confidence

CEO Charles Liang said demand remains strong across the company’s broader data center and cloud software products.

Super Micro has positioned itself as a go-to vendor for data center operators and AI startups, thanks to its ability to quickly build and ship customized high-performance servers.

Combined AI infrastructure spending from Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta is projected to exceed $700 billion this year — a tailwind that Super Micro has been directly benefiting from.

The Q4 guidance topped estimates on both the top and bottom lines, which appeared to be the catalyst for the after-hours move.

At the time of the most recent report, Super Micro’s stock was trading around $27.83 at the regular session close before surging to roughly $33 in overnight trading.

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