When Should We Expect The Next ‘Greed’ Zone? Crypto Sentiment And Timing In 2026

Cryptocurrency markets started 2026 in an extremely pessimistic mode. The sentiment measures were down to the Extreme Fear category, which indicates market bottoms and not a manic run-up. The next question now for analysts, traders, and long-term investors is when the next zone of Greed may come, indicating a high bullishness and overall confidence in the market. To view this timeline, it is necessary to take a look at not only up-to-date sentiment data but also the history of crypto cycles.

By February 18, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, one of the most common indicators of the state of market psychology, is only at 9 out of 100, which is evidently in the realm of Extreme Fear. Such a low reading suggests that traders and investors, as well as even institutional traders, are suffering widespread risk aversion and extreme caution. A score below 20 has traditionally been associated with protracted sell-offs, volatile trading, and the wave of capitulation.

Prior to markets being in a Greed zone, which is generally characterized by a reading of above 60, various factors about price momentum, investor confidence, macroeconomic stability, and liquidity will have to change considerably. Nevertheless, researching the evidence of sentiment indices, technical indicators, and crypto-cycle patterns, scholars and market commentators are starting to map when a movement to the greed sentiment may plausibly happen.

Current Crypto Sentiment: Under the Shadow of Extreme Fear

The mood image is not positive at the moment. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has recorded several times in the single-digit figures, even a record low of 5 in early February 2026, indicating the deepest reluctance in the market.

To measure the overall investor mood, the measurement consolidates statistics from various sources, such as price volatility, market momentum, social media activity, volume of trade, the dominance of bitcoins in the market, and Google search results. A score under 20 is usually an Extreme Fear, which means that a significant portion of the market members are abandoning the risk and minimizing the exposure to digital assets.

This fear has been the order of the day and has accompanied significant price contractions. An example is the case of Bitcoin that retested the support at the levels of $60,000–$70,000. 

This level has been used as a psychological aspect over the last several months. These extended periods of bearishness are usually indicators of either an extension of the negative price movement or a time during which the markets absorb weak holders and then major, sustained upturns.

This is because some commentators believe that long durations of intense fear, especially where sentiment measures are below historic levels, may lead to a change of heart in the market psychology. In mid-2022, another trough in sentiment led to one of the largest bull runs in late 2023 into 2024. 

Nonetheless, the interval between the greatest fear and the start of the greedy interval fluctuated significantly throughout the cycles, indicating that although a bad mood can be a precursor to a subsequent recovery, the process relies on numerous macro market forces.

Historical Patterns and What They Suggest

The Fear and Greed Index has no predictive nature, and history portrays that periods of Extreme Fear last months before they change into a neutral or greedy mood. As an example, in the 2021 2022 bear market, sentiment fell to fear deep for long periods before recovering with the revival of the price momentum in 2023. 

Another paper by scholars that studies sentiment regimes in cryptocurrency markets points to the extreme sentiment, either fear or greed, as connected to increased volatility and a potential transition phase in the future when the selling pressure is drained, and the liquidity level stabilizes. Although this kind of research does not identify any specific date, it suggests that the results of such escalations to the extreme fear territory and then to the territory of greed indicate structural changes that go beyond the short-term price changes.

Further, other technical analysis frameworks indicate that deep sentiment lows along with oversold signs, like those of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) measurements, may represent a sustainable bottom period, out of which markets can develop an upward momentum. Such conditions have been observed in recent research and study reports where capitulation is seen to be almost complete before reversal sets in at the beginning of the year 2026.

However, when the sentiment is Greed, signified by an overall reading greater than 60 on the Fear & Greed Index, prolonged rallies in the price, participation of more participants (retail and institutional flows), and high levels of social involvement will be associated. All these are present, and sentiment is still in a very fearful land.

Macro Forces, Market Dynamics, and the Path to Greed

The interaction between the macroeconomic situation in the world and the crypto sentiment is one of the primary causes of the long-term fear situation in the crypto markets. In the late 2025 and early 2026, the digital assets have been burdened by the growing interest rate issues, regulatory uncertainty, and classic market volatility. 

Although the price of crossovers indicated its strength in retaining its major support levels, the mood was still pessimistic due to the growing inclination of investors to consider cryptocurrencies as risky assets that are more susceptible to macroeconomic changes.

Nevertheless, investors following cycle bottoms and sentiment extremes now have possible indications of where the market is likely to go. The Matrixport sentiment index, which extends the Fear and Greed Index by capturing positioning and volatility, recorded readings of fear of below-zero, and this is a rarity, something the market has occasionally accompanied with a significant movement of the major trend. Such oversold sentiment is similar to past market bottoms before the trend switches.

Similar to this, long-term sentiment readings have recently reached their lowest level in four years, which implies that selling pressure amongst the large holders could be fading. Analysts at Matrixport view the change in their internal sentiment indicators as the selling pressure starting to ease, which is an indicator of the possible formation of a bottoming phase. This does not serve as a direct indicator of a Greed phase, but it does confirm the notion that market psychology might be at a point where it is no longer in a state of pure panic, but rather stabilization, which will be followed by a considerable amount of rebound.

The other significant possible trigger of sentiment improvement is renewed institutional adoption or optimistic regulatory changes. Earlier rallies, including 2020-2021 and 2023-2024, were boosted as institutional interest revived, coupled with better legal frameworks of crypto products such as Bitcoin ETFs. Should the same happen in 2026, they would offer the lever that is required to change the perception to optimism and ultimately greed.

When Might Greed Return?

Combining the existing sentiment data and historical cycles, technical indicators, and macro forces, most market analysts opine that short-term relief rallies can be experienced, but it will not likely be in an extended state of greed before more structural enhancements can be realized.

Technical analysts believe that in the short term (1-3 months), there is an indication of relief rallies whereby Bitcoin and major altcoins may experience moderately bouncing jumps. 

This may elevate sentiment to a neutral level, although not to the extent of attracting a full Greed reading. Such rebounds can be driven by oversold situations and panic exhaustion as the traders make opportunistic positions.

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