Bitwise Data Shows Bitcoin Investors Who Held Three or More Years Have Only a 0.7% Chance of a Loss

A report from Bitwise Asset Management released in late February 2026 shows that Bitcoin investors with a holding period of at least three years face a loss probability of just 0.7%, rising to 0.0% at five years, while investors in the three to five year bracket remain approximately 90% above their cost basis despite Bitcoin trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak of $126,000.

The Core Data

The rolling returns analysis Bitwise published produces three holding period brackets that tell structurally different stories about Bitcoin as an investment.

At one year, the loss probability sits at approximately 38%, with returns ranging from negative 45% to positive 20% depending on entry point. That variance reflects what investors who bought near the 2025 highs are currently experiencing. The range is wide and the downside is real.

At three years, the loss probability drops to 0.7% and average returns reach approximately 88%. The remaining 0.7% loss probability represents the narrow set of entry points across Bitcoin’s full history where a three-year hold still produced a negative result. In the current cycle, investors who entered in early 2023 or before are in this bracket and remain deeply in profit despite the correction.

At five years, the loss probability reaches 0.0% and average returns reach approximately 140%. No investor who has held Bitcoin for a full five-year period has ever seen a negative return across the asset’s entire history, including the current drawdown from $126,000.

The four-year cycle rule, which Bitwise identifies as a consistent pattern, states that no investor who held through a complete four-year cycle has recorded a loss. That pattern holds in the 2026 correction as it has in every prior cycle.

Time in Market vs. Timing the Market

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan frames the current environment around a distinction that the data makes concrete. Investors who attempted to time entries near the 2025 price peaks are sitting on significant unrealized losses. Investors who simply held their positions through prior cycles and did not attempt to optimize entry or exit points are, in the three and five year brackets, still well above their cost basis.

That distinction matters practically for how Registered Investment Advisors are being encouraged to interpret the current price level. Bitwise is using the rolling returns data to position $67,000 as an accumulation zone for advisors managing client portfolios with long-term horizons, rather than a level that warrants reducing exposure.

The argument is not that Bitcoin will not fall further from $67,000 in the short term. It is that the historical record of three and five year holding periods suggests that the entry price at the current level is unlikely to produce a loss over those timeframes, regardless of short-term volatility.

The Comparison to Traditional Assets

The Bitwise report includes a comparison of Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted returns over five years against both the S&P 500 and gold. On that measure, Bitcoin’s five-year performance still outperforms both traditional benchmarks despite the current drawdown from all-time highs.

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That comparison carries specific weight in the current environment for institutional and RIA audiences. Gold has been performing well in 2026 as a safe-haven asset during the geopolitical uncertainty of the past week. Bitcoin has been selling off alongside risk assets during the same period. The five-year comparison puts the short-term divergence between the two assets in context: one month of geopolitical shock does not rewrite a five-year return differential.

What the Data Does Not Say

The 0.0% five-year loss probability is a historical finding, not a guarantee. Bitwise’s rolling returns analysis reflects every entry point across Bitcoin’s past, which includes periods of much lower prices than the current cycle. An investor entering at $100,000 or above in 2025 is in a different position relative to the five-year return data than an investor who entered at $20,000 in 2020.

The report’s practical application is most relevant for advisors and investors making decisions about current price levels rather than those assessing prior entries. At $67,000, the data suggests the probability of a three-year or five-year loss is historically very low. Whether the current cycle’s unique characteristics alter that probability is a question the historical data cannot fully answer.

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