ENA is approaching the critical support level of $0.1773 while maintaining its weekly downtrend; holding this level could signal a transition to the accumulation phase, while breaking it could trigger a deep correction. Although the market structure is bearish, oversold momentum and BTC correlation offer strategic opportunities for weekly traders.
ENA in the Weekly Market Summary
ENA is trading at $0.18 with a 3.72% decline this week, stuck in a narrow $0.18-$0.19 range. Volume profile remains at a moderate $273.47M, while RSI at 32.93 points to oversold territory. MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram, and the short-term trend remains weak as long as price stays below EMA20 ($0.22). In the bigger picture, ENA is in a critical test phase within its long-term downtrend; in the macro context, BTC’s downtrend is exerting pressure on altcoins. For position traders, the market phase could be a temporary consolidation or the start of distribution – check out the detailed ENA spot analysis here.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure shows a clear downtrend; higher timeframes (weekly and monthly) are dominated by lower highs and lower lows formation. Price is clinging to the lower band of the main trend channel ($0.1773), which stands out as a major support with an 83% score. The trend filter gives a bearish signal, and staying below EMA20 and EMA50 makes the structure fragile. In the market cycle context, ENA appears to have transitioned from the distribution phase following the rally at the end of 2025 to a downtrend; however, divergences in RSI (32.93) may indicate trend exhaustion. For portfolio managers, short bias is prominent while the trend remains intact, but a potential BTC rebound in the macro cycle could trigger a reversal.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
The current market phase is a continuation of distribution patterns: Weekly candles are filled with doji and bearish engulfing, with selling pressure increased in the upper range of the volume profile. Failure to retest the $0.2179 resistance (63% score) suggests smart money is distributing. On the other hand, if the $0.1773 support holds, Wyckoff-style accumulation characteristics could emerge – low volume base formation and oversold RSI confluence. For an accumulation signal, price must defend this support with increased volume; otherwise, $0.0800 downside risk activates. Strategically, distribution dominance requires reducing position sizing.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe, 1 support / 2 resistance (out of a total of 10 strong level confluences) reinforces the bearish bias. After failing to break the $0.1951 (61% score) resistance, a downward impulse wave arrived; MACD histogram has turned negative and RSI has dropped to 32. Daily Supertrend is bearish, with closes below EMA20 confirming the trend. Critical confluence: $0.1773 daily support coincides with weekly major support – this is the inflection point. Monitor futures contracts for ENA futures market data and manage leverage risk.
Weekly Chart View
On the weekly chart, the downtrend structure remains intact with 2 supports / 3 resistances; price is testing the channel lower band ($0.1773). Weekly RSI shows oversold divergence, while MACD bearish cross is complete. The 2S/3R breakdown confirms the strength of resistances (especially $0.2179). From a confluence perspective, the weekly view aligns with daily support – a multi-TF bullish reversal is possible if it holds. Position traders should wait for a weekly close above $0.18.
Critical Decision Points
Main decision points are as follows: Major Support $0.1773 (83% score) – holding it initiates accumulation phase, breaking it opens $0.0800 (22% score) downside. Resistances at $0.1951 (61%) and $0.2179 (63%) – above them targets upside objective $0.3139 (30% score). Trend structure can be summarized as “intact bullish above $0.1773, broken bearish below.” R/R ratio is strategic: 1:2+ upside potential, 1:3+ downside. Full list for ENA and other analyses here.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In Case of Rise
If $0.1773 support holds on weekly close and $0.1951 breaks, green light for long positions: First target $0.2179, extension $0.3139. Stop-loss below $0.1773 (tight risk 5-7%). Confluence: RSI divergence + volume spike. Position traders, enter with 20-30% allocation, manage with trailing stop – macro BTC rebound as catalyst.
In Case of Fall
If $0.1773 breaks, short bias activates: Target $0.0800, intermediate $0.15. Stop above $0.1951. Bearish confluence: MACD expansion + BTC downtrend. Risk 2-4% per trade, reduce altcoin exposure in portfolio. In continued distribution, transitioning to cash is strategic.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC in downtrend at $89,317 (2.07% drop), Supertrend bearish – altcoins like ENA are highly correlated (0.85+). If BTC breaks $88,347 support, ENA tests $0.1773; rebound above $90,274 strengthens ENA resistances. BTC dominance rise increases selling pressure on alts – position traders, watch BTC below $86,552, don’t miss ENA short opportunity.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
Next week, $0.1773 support test and BTC movements are in focus; watch $0.1951 breakout on hold, $0.15 downside on break. Track RSI divergence and volume confluence – multi-TF confirmation required for trend reversal. Strategic stance: Wait-and-see, selective entry.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/ena-weekly-strategy-downtrend-and-critical-support-test-january-21-2026
