2025: A Game-Changing Year for Web3—Key Predictions from Equilibrium
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As we move into 2025, the Web3 ecosystem is poised for revolutionary growth. Equilibrium's latest predictions offer a roadmap of what's to come, focusing on scalability, privacy, and cross-chain collaboration. Here's a brief look at the major developments that will shape the blockchain landscape:
1. The Revolution of Scalability and Performance
1.1 Ethereum Scaling Solutions (L2/L3) Exceed 2,000
Ethereum's ecosystem will see an explosion of scaling solutions, growing from 120 to over 2,000 by 2025, driven by both application-specific rollups and corporate L2 solutions (e.g., Coinbase, Kraken).
1.2 Ethereum's Scaling Factor will Increase by More Than 200x
As L2/L3 technologies continue to evolve, Ethereum's scaling factor is projected to increase more than 200x. Rollup-based scalability solutions will effectively alleviate congestion on the Ethereum main chain, facilitating the deployment of a broader range of applications within the Ethereum ecosystem.
1.3 Solana to Exceed 5,000 TPS
Solana, known for its high throughput, will continue to improve its performance. Its non-voting transactions are expected to reach over 5,000 transactions per second (TPS) by 2025, bolstered by key upgrades like the Firedancer client and performance optimizations.
1.4 More Than 80% of L2/L3 Data Will Be Published to Alternative DA Layers
With the ongoing advancements in Data Availability (DA) layers, it is projected that by 2025, over 80% of L2/L3 data will be published to alternative DA layers, such as Celestia and EigenDA. This will alleviate the burden on the Ethereum main chain, enhancing the network's scalability and efficiency.
1.5 ZK-Based Scaling Solutions Surpass Optimistic Rollups
As ZK technology matures, ZK-based solutions (e.g., Starknet, ZK Sync) are expected to surpass Optimistic rollups. These solutions offer enhanced transaction speed, reduced latency, and improved security.
1.6 Ethereum Gas Limit Doubles to 60 Million
The Ethereum gas limit per block is expected to double to 60 million by 2025, enabling the network to process more transactions and data.
1.7 Every Ethereum Block Will Be Validated by ZK Proofs
ZK proofs will become the standard for validating Ethereum blocks by 2025, enabling more efficient block validation and reducing validation costs.
1.8 General-Purpose zkVMs Will Be Able To Prove Ethereum Mainnet Blocks Within 30 Seconds
Zero-Knowledge Virtual Machine (zkVM) technology is set to become a critical component of Ethereum scalability. By 2025, zkVMs are expected to prove Ethereum mainnet blocks within 30 seconds, thereby accelerating transaction verification and information propagation.
1.9 Decentralized ZK Proofs
Over 90% of all cross-blockchain ZK proofs will be generated in a decentralized manner by the end of 2025, improving censorship resistance and efficiency in the blockchain ecosystem.
2. Emphasis on Privacy Protection
2.1 Privacy Blockchain Applications Will Have Its "ChatGPT Moment"
By 2025, privacy protection is poised to become an integral element of blockchain technology. Driven by increasing demand, privacy-focused blockchain applications are expected to enter a phase of significant growth, akin to the transformative breakthroughs seen in AI technologies. These advancements will provide users with enhanced privacy protection and data security.
2.2 Zama's MPC Threshold Decryption Library Will Become the De Facto Standard
Zama's Multi-Party Computation (MPC) decryption library is expected to become the de facto standard in the industry. This will significantly advance the development of privacy protection technologies, enabling data on the blockchain to be processed and verified securely, while maintaining user privacy.
2.3 Nym's Decentralized VPN Network Will Reach 10% of TOR Network's Capacity
Nym's decentralized VPN network may become a key component of the blockchain privacy landscape. By 2025, it is projected that Nym's decentralized VPN users will reach 10% of the TOR network's user base, providing internet users worldwide with enhanced privacy protection.
2.4 At Least One Major Rollup Provider Will Integrate Private Compute
By 2025, private compute is anticipated to become a critical feature of rollup networks. It is projected that at least one major rollup provider (such as Optimism, Arbitrum, etc.) will incorporate private compute capabilities to support blockchain applications with advanced privacy requirements.
2.5 At Least Three Startups Will Accelerate the Development of Indistinguishability Obfuscation (IO) Technology
Currently, only a few teams, such as Sora and Gauss Labs, are working on the implementation of Indistinguishability Obfuscation (IO) technology. Given its potential, IO is expected to garner greater attention by 2025, with at least three startups securing venture capital to expedite its development and increase its applicability.
2.6 The Adoption Rate of Encrypted MemPools Will Remain Low
While encrypted mempool technology has the potential to mitigate harmful MEV attacks, such as front-running and sandwich attacks, its adoption is expected to remain below 10%. This is primarily due to the complexity of integration and the limited demand within the market.
3. Revolution in Consensus Mechanisms and Network Architecture
3.1 At Least One Existing Network Will Transition from PoW or BFT-Based PoS to DAG-Based Consensus
The Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) based consensus mechanism provides a more efficient solution for distributed systems by separating communication (data propagation) from the consensus layer (linear ordering of transactions). The DAG data structure ensures deterministic ordering, meaning that as long as all nodes eventually share the same DAG, they will achieve consistent ordering. By 2025, DAG consensus mechanisms are expected to see broader adoption across blockchain networks, with at least one existing network (such as Aptos, Sui, etc.) transitioning from Proof of Work (PoW) or Byzantine Fault Tolerance (BFT) to DAG-based consensus, thereby significantly enhancing network performance.
3.2 QUIC Transport Layer Will Open to Security Components Beyond Transport Layer Security (TLS)
As an innovative transport protocol, Quick UDP Internet Connections (QUIC) is poised for further development by 2025, with plans to extend its support to security components beyond TLS. This shift will enhance the data transmission efficiency and security of blockchain networks, improving their reliability in decentralized applications. By reducing the close dependency on HTTP, QUIC will see broader adoption within the blockchain space. Currently, blockchain networks such as Solana, Internet Computer, and Sui have already begun adopting the QUIC protocol, driving its widespread use in P2P networks.
4. User Experience and Cross-Chain Collaboration
4.1 At Least One Solana Application Will Operate Using Rollup/Network Scaling Solutions
While the Solana core team prioritizes L1 layer improvements, the network is gradually embracing a modular approach. Unlike typical L2 solutions, Solana's scalability strategy aims to enhance developer and user experiences through lower latency and customized block space. This approach is well-suited for applications like gaming and certain DeFi projects that operate in isolated environments with minimal reliance on shared data.
By 2025, we anticipate at least one Solana application leveraging rollup/network scaling solutions. These solutions will deliver a seamless user experience indistinguishable from the original L1. Users will barely perceive the transition to the scaled network, thanks to technologies like Magic Block or Bullet that optimize performance.
4.2 Over 25% of On-Chain Transactions Will Be Generated through Chain Abstraction
By 2025, more than 25% of on-chain transactions will be conducted through chain abstraction, allowing users to interact with decentralized apps (dApps) without needing to understand which underlying blockchain they are using.
4.3 Most New Rollups Will Launch on ZK Stacks with Native Interoperability
ZK technology is set to become the core of cross-chain collaboration in blockchain. By 2025, the majority of newly launched rollups are expected to be launched on ZK stacks with native interoperability, further enhancing the interoperability between different blockchains and enabling seamless data and value transfer.
5.Summary
2025 will mark a crucial year for the Web3 ecosystem. Pioneering scaling solutions, privacy-centric technologies, and cross-chain collaboration mechanisms are set to leave an indelible mark on the industry. The Web3 landscape will gradually advance towards more efficient, secure, and privacy-focused application paradigms, and the future of blockchain will unfold in a more diverse and dynamic form, offering users greater control, transparency, and security. With continuous technological breakthroughs, Web3 will emerge as a cornerstone of the global digital economy, propelling digital transformation into an entirely new era.
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