SOL is experiencing a horizontal squeeze at the $86.71 level, and despite the short-term decline, the overall uptrend continues. MACD’s bullish signal supports the rise, while staying below EMA20 and Supertrend’s bearish signal indicate both scenarios are possible.
Current Market Situation
SOL’s current price is at the $86.71 level and has declined %3.53 in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between $86.26 – $90.29, with trading volume standing out at $2.44 billion. Although the overall trend is uptrend, the short-term outlook is bearish: Price is trading below EMA20 ($88.49). RSI at 46.54 is in the neutral zone, MACD shows a bullish signal with a positive histogram but Supertrend is bearish and points to $102.57 resistance. Critical supports are $83.22 (score 70/100) and $86.74 (67/100); resistances are $87.46 (73/100) and $98.46 (60/100). In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, there are 10 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2S/2R on 1D, 0S/2R on 3D, and 2S/4R balance on 1W showing resistance dominance. No SOL-specific news breaks in market news, general crypto pressure is effective.
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Happen?
For the bullish scenario, a clear break above $87.46 resistance is required first; if confirmed with a close above this level and increasing volume, momentum is gained. MACD’s positive histogram expands, and if RSI rises above 50, short-term EMA20 ($88.49) is surpassed. Supertrend’s bullish turn and continuation of the overall uptrend open the way to $98.46 resistance. Stability or rise in BTC supports this scenario. Watch for volume increase and bullish engulfing candlestick patterns. If this breakout doesn’t occur, the scenario becomes invalid, with risk of pullback to $86.74 support.
Target Levels
First target $98.46 (medium-term resistance), followed by $102.57 Supertrend level and final $117.71 (score 31/100). Set take-profit points at these levels; above $117 opens door to new ATH test. R/R ratio can be optimized by calculating from current supports, e.g., 1:2+ potential from entry at $83.22.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by breaking $86.74 support; close below this level with volume increase accelerates toward $83.22. Staying below short-term EMA20, RSI dropping below 40, and MACD histogram turning negative increase risks. Supertrend’s bearish signal strengthens, 1W resistances in MTF apply pressure. Continuation of BTC’s downtrend (e.g., $68,116 break) pulls SOL down. Watch for bearish engulfing or low-volume declines in candlestick patterns. If it holds above $86.74, the scenario becomes invalid, consolidation extends.
Protection Levels
First protection $83.22 (strong support, score 70/100), if broken, descends to $65-70 band intermediate supports. Final target $45.40 (score 22/100), recommend stop-loss below $83 against panic selling. These levels are critical for risk management; calculate R/R in position sizing.
Which Scenario to Watch?
The decision lies in breaks of $87.46 resistance and $86.74 support: Bullish confirmation with volume + RSI>50 on upside break, bearish with volume + RSI<40 on downside. MACD divergences and Supertrend turns as early warnings. BTC movements are decisive; follow detailed charts from SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis pages. Invalidation levels clear for both scenarios: Below $86.74 for bullish, above $87.46 for bearish.
Bitcoin Correlation
SOL is highly correlated with BTC (usually %0.8+); BTC is in downtrend at $68,346 level with Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports $68,116 / $65,638 break, pressure on SOL increases below $83. Conversely, if BTC surpasses $68,868 resistance, SOL bullish scenario strengthens, paving way to $70,812. If BTC dominance rises, expect general weakness in altcoins; below $62,910 for BTC is critical danger for SOL, above $72,364 is opportunity signal.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
SOL at critical juncture: Breakout from $86-87 band will determine direction. Monitoring points: Volume spikes, RSI/MACD divergences, BTC levels. Be prepared for both scenarios, focus on risk management. Follow updates with daily closes and MTF levels. This analysis is for educational purposes and may change with market dynamics.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/sol-technical-analysis-march-22-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
