Analyst: XRP Must Clear This Key Level to Invalidate Bearish Structure

XRP is attempting to push above the 200 EMA and the $1.55 level, a move that market analyst EGRAG CRYPTO says would signal short-term strength if confirmed with a weekly close.

Despite the attempted rally, the token remains trapped inside a descending channel that has defined its price action for months, leaving the broader trend corrective until a breakout above $2.20 flips the structure bullish.

XRP Tests 200 EMA

In a post published on X on March 4, EGRAG CRYPTO said XRP is “pushing above 200 EMA” but warned that the price is still trading inside a descending channel on the weekly timeframe.

According to their breakdown, a weekly close above $1.55 would weaken the current downward trajectory, while a close above $2.20 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the path toward $2.70 to $3.60.

If XRP fails to reclaim $1.55, the analyst outlined a move toward $1.26, with a possible sweep of macro support between $0.95 and $0.85. In a separate post, they assigned a 55% to 65% probability to a deeper sweep and a 35% to 45% chance of an early breakout reclaim.

“Structure > Emotion,” they wrote, arguing that the descending channel still defines the trend. The technical standoff comes at a time when derivatives and spot activity are contracting. Analyst Amr Taha previously noted that XRP futures open interest had dropped 70% since October 2025, falling to $203 million.

Binance open interest slipped below $270 million, levels last seen in April 2025 before a major rally. Historically, such resets have coincided with local bottoms as leverage is cleared out, though they do not guarantee a rebound.

Price Action Reflects Fragile Recovery

At the time of writing, data from CoinGecko showed that XRP had gained about 4% in the last 24 hours and roughly 3% over the past week, bouncing from a recent low near $1.27.

Even so, the token remains down more than 12% over 30 days and about 40% across the past year. Furthermore, it is still more than 61% below its July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.

The recent rebound has occurred within a 24-hour range between $1.34 and $1.42, with market capitalization holding near $86 billion.

For now, the weekly close relative to $1.55 is the immediate focus. A decisive break above $2.20 would alter the chart structure described by EGRAG, while rejection below the 200 EMA will keep the descending channel intact and leave lower supports in play.

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