XRP Price Eyes Relief Bounce to $2.20 If This Level Holds

Key Insights:

• XRP price saw realized losses hit ~908M, often linked with cycle bottoms.
• $1.12 is the key flipped S/R; losing it weakens the bullish setup.
• Holding the 44 EMA holds a path for $2.20, but a break risks $0.65-$0.85.

XRP price is at a technical crossroads after a sharp pullback. Analysts are watching the monthly 44 EMA as an important “pain zone” that often is instrumental in determining trend direction. At the same time, Santiment data shows that realized losses are surging to multi-year highs, something that has historically coincided with XRP cycle bottoms.

XRP Monthly 44 EMA Becomes the Line in the Sand

EgragCrypto said XRP’s monthly structure is “clear” as price tests the 44 EMA. He defined the zone as an area of historical pain in which shakeouts are frequent before a larger trend resumes. In his opinion, the macro trend can continue to be bullish, but the market is still in a corrective phase.

XRPUSD Monthly Chart | Source: Egrag, X

He set out three pathways from here. A flush scenario would involve a monthly close below 44 EMA, which he states could possibly invalidate the structure and trigger a liquidity hunt to around $0.65-$0.85. A second path is a relief bounce if XRP price holds the 44 EMA, with $2.20 framed as a logical rebound target but not a full bull run.

The third path is a bull continuation, but he said it is “not yet” active. He wants acceptance above $2.20-$2.30 before he considers new highs to be realistic. Until then, his position remains neutral to bearish in the short term, even if longer-term is constructive.

Key Support Zone Could Decide the Next Leg

Notably, ChartNerdTA focused on a more tactical level. He broke out $1.12 as a flipped support-resistance level that XRP price needs to hold on to. In his framework, holding the $1.12 low would preserve a setup for a larger move higher.

Source: ChartNerdTA, X

If that support holds, then he points to an extension of Fibonacci near $13 as the longer path. However, he was also very careful to warn that a loss of support would render the bullish route invalid. The chart highlighted previous resistance overhead and implies that the price needs to stabilise before any aggressive upside projection is credible.

This makes for an easy-to-follow near-term checklist for traders. XRP price needs to defend the current base and recover the previous supply zones. If those conditions fail, the market is likely to swing back towards EgragCrypto’s deeper liquidity targets.

Santiment Realized Loss Spike Revives Bottoming Narrative

Santiment said that the investors of XRP experienced the most significant realized losses since 2022. The firm said there were realized losses of around 908 million in the previous week. Realized losses are increased when holders sell below their purchase price, which frequently represents the peak of fear and panic selling.

Source: Santiment 

Santiment reasoned that heavy realized loss events can be constructive. They often imply weak hands have left and selling pressure is getting exhausted. The firm added that a similar spike in 2022 was followed by a strong recovery in the following 8 months with XRP gaining over 114% in that period.

This is not a guarantee of a repeat, but it does help put the current drop in context of possible capitulation. When big losses occur rapidly, the market may become more sensitive to positive catalysts. Still, realized loss spikes can also be prolonged if macro conditions continue to tighten.

Beyond on-chain metrics, recent developments have supported XRP’s utility narrative. SBI Ripple Asia said it will start paying investors in its on-chain bonds in XRP, widening retail-facing use cases linked to the token. That type of integration can enhance demand channels, even if price has a slow reaction time.

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