This XRP Indicator Warns That Price May Crash Below $1: Analyst

XRP (XRP)  has retraced nearly 63% from its multi-year high of $3.66 to trade at $1.36 on Wednesday, a technical setup that may have bearish implications for its price, according to a market analyst.  

Key takeaways:

• XRP appeared bearish below $1.40, with chart technicals pointing to a further drop toward $0.70-$1.

• Persistent spot XRP ETFs inflows, whale accumulation and a surge in active addresses could invalidate the bearish outlook.

Where will XRP price bottom?

In a Tuesday post on X, Chart Nerd said that previous fractals from the monthly Gaussian Channel indicator suggest that XRP could drop lower over the coming weeks or months.

Related: XRP traders more optimistic as BTC, ETH mood turns sour: Santiment

The Gaussian Channel is a technical analysis indicator used to identify trends, spot potential support/resistance levels, and overbought/oversold conditions.

The chart below shows that whenever the XRP price rallied, it has corrected to retest the upper regression band of the Gaussian Channel, which is currently at $1.16.

Historically, this has led to three to four months of “further decline towards the middle regression band of the Gaussian Channel before marking a foundation and continuing the trajectory higher,” the analyst said, adding:

XRP/USD monthly chart depicting the Gaussian Channel. Source: Chart Nerd

Chart Nerd added that this scenario will be validated if the XRP drops below the local lows of $1.12, reached on Friday. 

Meanwhile, analyst Crypto Patel said that while a drop to $1 would provide a good entry zone for XRP buyers, the “best accumulation zone” could be lower at $0.50-$0.70. 

“Currently, XRP/USDT is ~70% down from the recent ATH. After a historical 96% drawdown from $3.28 to $0.1050 in 2018,” a similar crash is “unlikely,” the technical analyst said, adding:

XRP/USD monthly chart. Source: Crypto Patel

As Cointelegraph reported, the odds of XRP falling below $1 increased once the price was rejected by the 200-week moving average around $1.40.

Is there hope for an XRP price recovery?

Despite XRP’s price weakness, institutional demand and whale accumulation continued.

Launched in late 2025, spot XRP ETFs have now reached $1.23 billion in cumulative net inflows. The $3.26 million inflows on Tuesday marked the fifth consecutive day of inflows, bringing the total assets under management to $1.01 billion.

Spot XRP  ETFs flows table. Source: SoSoValue

“Institutional demand and XRP ETF inflows continue, with persistent spot ETF net inflows highlighting institutional confidence,” trader Levi said in a recent post on X.

XRP’s latest rebound to $1.50 from $1.12 came as speculators discussed whether the price would fall below $1, market intelligence platform Santiment said in a recent post on X.

Another hope for the bulls is that whales accumulated during the crash as transactions involving over $100,000 in XRP spiked to four-month highs of 1,389. 

The number of active addresses on the XRP Ledger “suddenly ballooned to 78,727 in just one 8-hour candle — the highest in 6 months,” Santiment said, adding:

XRP daily active addresses and whale transactions. Source: Santiment

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