Solana is showing signs of stress after months of sustained losses, growing outflows, and weakening price structure. Recent on-chain and market data suggest traders may be approaching a decisive moment. While price action remains fragile, historical patterns are drawing attention as selling pressure intensifies and long-term holders reposition.
Exchange Outflows Signal Stress, Not Confidence
According to Ali Martinez, more than 1.07 million SOL left centralized exchanges over the last 72 hours. Such withdrawals often reflect fear-driven self-custody rather than fresh accumulation. Besides that, Santiment data shows Solana-focused ETFs recorded $11.9 million in net outflows. This marked the second-largest capital exit on record.
Source: X
Significantly, Solana has lost roughly 62% of its market value over four months. Consequently, market behavior now resembles late-stage drawdowns seen in previous cycles. Moreover, heavy ETF outflows often appear near exhaustion phases, when sellers dominate flows regardless of price.
At the time of writing, Solana trades near $87 with muted daily price movement. However, weekly losses remain steep. Hence, short-term stability does not yet signal recovery.
Price Structure Break Signals SOL Trend Weakness
Analysis from CryptoJobs3 points to a confirmed loss of monthly support between $98 and $100. This region previously acted as a strong demand zone. However, repeated closes below it indicate fading bullish control.
Additionally, price rebounds have grown weaker and continue to stall near former resistance. This behavior reflects a broader downtrend rather than temporary volatility. The next major support rests near $78, which aligns with a long-term weekly demand area.
If price breaks below $78, analysts expect selling pressure to accelerate. Consequently, downside targets extend toward $70, then $60. Deeper historical demand exists near the $48 to $45 range, where buyers previously stepped in.
SOL Historical Fractals Point to a Possible Inflection
Another comparison draws attention to longer-term patterns. According to Galaxy, Solana shows a structure similar to late 2022. During that period, SOL based near $8 after an extended decline. Today, SOL trades between $85 and $90, resting on a long-term descending trendline.
Source: X
Significantly, weekly RSI now sits near 37, reflecting deep oversold conditions. A similar RSI compression preceded the 2022 reversal. Key supports remain at $80 and $65. A failure there risks a deeper sweep toward $55.
However, upside scenarios still exist. A reclaim of $120 would signal trendline recovery. That move could open paths toward $160 and eventually $220 to $260. Historically, such compression phases often precede sharp expansions.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/14432/solana-capitulation-near-over-1-07-m-sol-exit-exchanges-in-72-hours
