Ripple Price Analysis: XRP Defies Geopolitical Tension but Breakdown Risks Still Linger

XRP is showing signs of weakness after its recent breakout, while the broader market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Despite geopolitical tensions rising in the Middle East and Asia, Bitcoin and crypto markets are holding much better than expected, and XRP is no exception.

XRP Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

XRP recently surged into a major resistance area around $2.40, just below the key 200-day moving average. The asset was quickly rejected, broken back below the 100-day moving average (located around $2.20), and is now pulling back toward the $2.00 support range. This zone also aligns with the mid-range of the recent move, providing a short-term support cushion.

Yet, momentum has slowed, as seen in the RSI rolling over from the overbought zone and is now on the verge of dropping below 50. A daily close below $2.00 could expose XRP to further downside toward the recent major low at $1.80. On the upside, reclaiming the 100-day moving average and closing above the $2.40 supply zone would reopen the door toward the 200-day moving average and even the significant $3 level as potential targets for the upcoming months.

The BTC Pair

On the XRPBTC pair’s daily timeframe, Ripple’s token briefly broke above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, rallying from 2,100 sats to just under 2,600 sats before experiencing a decisive rejection. The price is now trading around 2,250 sats and back below the 200-day moving average (located around 2,400 sats). The 100-day moving average is currently holding the price near the 2,250 level.

As long as the 2,200–2,250 sats area holds, buyers still have a chance to build a higher low structure. Losing that zone would likely send XRP back toward the 2,000 sats demand zone. Meanwhile, a bounce and reclaim of the 2,400 sats level could start a fresh leg toward the 2,700–2,800 sats range again. However, until this scenario happens, XRP remains weak and is likely to underperform against BTC.

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