XRP Repeats Rare Cycle Pattern That Delivered 200% to 800% Rallies

XRP is once again sitting at a familiar long-term crossroads. Market watcher STEPH pointed out that in every major cycle, XRP dipped below its 50-week simple moving average and stayed there for a defined period before staging a powerful recovery.

XRP has often rallied after spending time below the 50-week SMA. In past cycles, 49 to 84 days below this level led to gains ranging from 70% to nearly 850%. 

Currently, XRP has been at the same level for about 70 days, placing it within a historical zone that has previously signaled a shift away from downside pressure.

Also Read: XRP Approaches Make-or-Break Trend Ribbon, Long-Term Targets $5–$8

50-Week SMA Remains the Line That Matters

Analyzing the weekly chart for XRP/USD, the reason why the 50-week SMA is of such significance can be understood.

Since the 50-week SMA has always assisted in identifying the trend, the breaking backabove the 50-week SMA after a prolonged base saw the price move up rapidly within a span of ten weeks in 2017. There was a marked shift from the accumulation phase to the expansion phase.

Source: X

The pattern in the 2021 cycle looked the same but scaled down. XRP again rallied above the 50-week MA and held it for a brief period before rising another 70% in seven weeks. The pattern is simply scaled down. Reclaim, hold, then grow.

This is because the current cycle is following a similar pattern on a larger scale. XRP was moving around its 50-week moving average, but then was able to cross it, causing it to surge by over 800% in 10 to 12 weeks. 

As expected, there was a pullback, but it is currently close to a positively moving 50-week moving average.

Gold, Silver, and XRP Share a Familiar Base Pattern

STEPH also compared the current situation for XRP with the situation for gold and silver before. Both were trading sideways for several years, and this reduced market interest.

Both had a final drop and consolidated into a sideways base. The major rallies did not happen during the panic dump but after establishing the base.

Source: X

Silver established an increasing low from late 2022 to early 2023 and thereafter entered into a strong rise from 2025 to 2026. Gold had a similar action after its extended consolidation and clean breakout.

The current base for XRP is similar to that mentioned above because it took years to form a large range from its latest peak, and indicates that it is yet to break out.

Also Read: XRP Approaches Make-or-Break Trend Ribbon, Long-Term Targets $5–$8