Executive summary
- Trend bias: Bullish continuation expected after a maturing (iv) triangle completes.
- Key level: 45,728 is critical support; holding above it keeps the bullish count intact.
- Upside target: Wave (v) of Primary 3 projects toward 49,347–51,726 based on Fibonacci extensions.
Current Elliott Wave analysis
The Dow Jones Industrial Average appears to be tracing out a Primary Degree Wave 3, with the market currently forming Intermediate Wave (iv) as a contracting symmetrical triangle. The labeled a–b–c–d–e structure is nearly complete, and triangles at this degree often precede a sharp thrust in the direction of the prevailing trend.
At the next lower degree, the internal structure shows a clear five-wave advance into wave (iii), followed by this triangle pattern wave (iv). The triangle support line—connecting waves ‘a’ and ‘c’—sits just above 45,728, which also aligns with a historical shelf of prior fourth-wave support (a common termination point described in Elliott Wave guidelines ).
A bullish breakout from the (iv) triangle typically launches Wave (v), which often travels a Fibonacci 61.8% to 100% extension of waves (i), projected at the end of wave (iv). That gives us a projected upside range of 49,347–51,726, consistent with the chart’s annotated targets.
RSI divergence hints that momentum has cooled during the sideways consolidation—exactly what we expect during a fourth-wave triangle. Once complete, triangles usually produce strong, directional thrusts, often equaling the widest part of the triangle in price.
Bottom line
As long as the Dow holds above 45,728, the preferred Elliott Wave count favors a bullish thrust into Wave (v) with upside potential toward 49,000 – 51,000. A breakdown below 45,728 would invalidate the triangle and shift expectations to a deeper correction, but for now, the trend remains up.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/djia-elliott-wave-dow-delivers-the-wow-202512090320
