SOL’s (SOL) recent recovery stalled at $145 as Solana ETF flows flipped negative for the first time since launch.
Key takeaways:
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Solana TVL drops 20% in November, with a 16% decline in network fees, signaling weak network demand.
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SOL’s bear flag projects a deeper price correction to $100.
SOL recovery at risk amid weak onchain activity
As Cointelegraph reported, spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended their streak of net inflows, recording their first single-day net outflow of $8.2 million on Wednesday.
Related: Solana treasury backs ‘double disinflation’ plan amid 30% price decline
This reflected a possible decline in institutional demand amid waning network activity.
Data from Nansen shows weakening network metrics, including a 6% decrease in active addresses and a 16% decline in network fees over the last seven days.
30-day performance of major blockchains. Source: NansenSimilarly, Solana’s total value locked (TVL) is down 20% month-to-date and fell 32% from its September high of $13.23 billion to $9.1 billion on Nov. 11.
Solana: total value locked. Source: DefiLlamaJito was among the weakest performers in Solana’s deposits, with its TVL dropping 33% over the past 30 days. Other notable declines included Jupiter (-28%), Raydium (-31%), and Sanctum (-22%).
While this doesn’t guarantee that Solana’s price will stay below $150, the technical setup suggests that Solana’s downside may not be over.
However, Solana’s stagnant network fees and weak derivatives market could delay SOL’s price recovery.
Upbit’s Solana hack adds uncertainty
The Upbit hack, involving a $36 million theft from its Solana hot wallet on Thursday, has triggered fresh uncertainty in the SOL market just as the token was recovering from lows of $120.
By halting SOL deposits and withdrawals for maintenance, the South Korean exchange curbs liquidity, potentially amplifying sell-offs. This disrupts trading flows, as users can’t easily exit or enter positions, fostering volatility that could erode bullish momentum toward $150 resistance.
SOL’s price climbed 3% to $143 post-announcement despite the breach, showing resilience but faces pared gains and heightened short-term pressure.
SOL price bear flag targets $100
SOL’s price action has formed a textbook bear flag pattern on the six-hour chart, a bearish continuation setup formed when the price consolidates upward in a parallel channel after a sharp downward move.
In Solana’s case, the flag began forming after SOL topped at around $170 on Nov. 17. The consolidation has persisted since then, with the price gradually climbing and retesting the support line of the flag, currently at $140.
A break below this level will validate the bear flag, opening the door for the bearish continuation toward the measured target of the pattern at $99. Such a move would result in total losses of 30%.
SOL/USD six-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewTrader MR Ape said that the $145 level is key as it has “rejected the price three times already and momentum is slowing again” as SOL price approaches this zone.
As Cointelegraph reported, a drop below the bottom of the flag around $120 could see the SOL/USDT pair plunge to $110 and subsequently to $95, where buyers are expected to step in.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/solana-analysis-sol-price-unlikely-break-150-dollars?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound
