Dogecoin on the Edge: After a 36% Crash, Is the Worst Still to Come?

Dogecoin has experienced a significant decline over the past few weeks, with a 36% drop since its September high. At the time of writing, the popular meme coin is currently priced at $0.1981, compared to $0.3066, which is a concern for investors who may incur a loss.

Source: CoinMarketCap

Technical Indicators Signal Further Weakness

The daily chart tells concerning news to the DOGE holders. The cryptocurrency has fallen below a consolidating upward wedge formation, a development typically followed by further losses. Worst still is the fact that a death cross is about to form with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average moving below the 200-day EMA. This technical trend has been observed to show a prolonged bearish trend.

According to market analysts, the coin may retest its support at $0.1515, which was its price on October 10 as the wider crypto market entered a selling frenzy. This would represent a 22% decrease from the current levels.

Dogecoin Price Chart

The timeframe of the week presents an even gloomier picture. Dogecoin has already developed a bearish flag, characterized by a vertical decline between the positions of $0.4838 and $0.1295, and an upward channel. 

Technical analysis suggests that the area around which the price may break down and drop is $0.0052, representing a devastating 90% decline. This would become a reality if DOGE drops below $0.0570, which was previously used as a support level since October 2023.

DOGE Price Chart.Source: X

ETF Performance Disappoints Market Expectations

The basic perspective offers little relief. The REX-Osprey DOGE ETF, introduced in September, has attracted assets under management of only $30.7 million. The latest trading statistics indicate that there have been no inflows over the last several days, which suggests a decline in investor activity.

The performance of the fund varies significantly from that of its counterpart. The difference in market sentiment between the two cryptocurrencies is evident in the REX-Osprey XRP ETF surpassing the 100 million asset mark.

There are several reasons why the response was weak. The DOGE ETF has a 1.5% expense ratio, which is significantly higher than the average expense ratio of American investment funds. Such a fee arrangement renders this product less appealing to the cost-sensitive investors who want to invest in the cryptocurrency.

Enthusiasm has been dimmed by the $364 million liquidations this month. These forced selling events generated significant volatility and instilled a lack of confidence in potential buyers. Most investors have been sidelined, waiting for better signals before committing their capital.

The convergence of unfavorable technical movements and low ETF demand is a poor environment for Dogecoin. The possible death cross structure on the daily chart, along with the bearish flag structure on the weekly ones, indicates that there is continued downward pressure.

The cryptocurrency will have headwinds in the short term before it can turn around due to the absence of new catalysts. The absence of ETF inflows indicates that institutional interest has not materialized as anticipated. Traders and investors are still monitoring the support levels that will determine whether the current downward trend will continue or halt at low prices.