Analysis: Bitcoin's average decline in September was about 6%. ETF fund outflows or stock market sell-offs may cause BTC to near $100,000

PANews reported on September 1st that, according to CoinDesk data, September is historically one of Bitcoin's weakest months. Market data from the past 12 years shows that Bitcoin's average September decline is approximately 6%, with a median decline of approximately 5%. Furthermore, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin premium is declining, reflecting market concerns about cryptocurrency-driven corporate financial strategies.

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research stated that this trend could exacerbate Bitcoin's seasonal weakness in September and also suggests that the crypto market is maturing and investors are beginning to reassess long-term value drivers. While expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut are expected to ease seasonal pressure, ETF outflows or a stock market sell-off could further depress Bitcoin's price to near the $100,000 support level. Data shows that Bitcoin has closed lower in September eight times since 2013, including sharp declines of 13% in 2019 and 19% in 2014, making sustained gains difficult even during bull cycles. This seasonal pattern has led traders to view September as a fixed trading cycle.