The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to about 30%.

PANews reported on November 20th that the minutes of the Federal Reserve's October meeting revealed a deepening division among committee members regarding whether to continue cutting interest rates in December, with some officials believing there was "a lack of sufficient justification." The minutes stated that the previous meeting saw a 10-2 vote to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%, but several participants opposed this cut, suggesting that remaining on hold would be acceptable. Following the government shutdown and the resulting delays in the release of employment and inflation data, support for a December rate cut decreased. The market's implied probability of a rate cut fell to approximately 33%. The minutes also indicated that regardless of the December decision, at least three dissenting votes are likely; most officials still believe that further rate cuts after December are necessary.

According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 32.7% (compared to 48.9% yesterday), while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 67.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 49.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 33.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 16.3%.