Analyst Warns XRP Could ‘Shake Out’ Traders Before Major Breakout

XRP needs to push past $1.51 before any real breakout becomes possible, according to market commentator Matt Hughes — and one analyst thinks that moment could arrive this week, but not before the market knocks out the weakest holders first.

A Pattern Years In The Making

MichaelXBT, a widely followed crypto analyst, says XRP has spent months forming a falling wedge on its weekly chart — a structure that typically points toward an upside move once price breaks above the upper boundary.

The coin has been trapped in this pattern since July 2025, when it peaked at $3.66. Since then it has shed about 60%, landing near $1.37 amid a broader market selloff that took hold in October of that year.

The upper boundary of the wedge stopped XRP cold multiple times. Attempts near $3 in late 2025 failed. A January 2026 push stalled at $2.41. Now, with price pressing into the narrowest part of the structure, MichaelXBT believes the next move – the “shakeout” – is close.

What A Falling Wedge Signals

A falling wedge forms when price slides between two downward-sloping lines that gradually narrow. Selling pressure tends to weaken as the pattern develops.

When price finally breaks above the upper line, it often triggers a sharp move to the upside. That upper line currently sits around the $1.50 to $1.51 price range for XRP — a level Hughes described as the threshold the asset must clear before a breakout can be confirmed.

XRP has not managed a clean close above that area. The pattern, by itself, does not guarantee a rally. But analysts who track this structure say the position of price at the apex — the tip of the wedge — tends to force a decision in one direction or the other.

The Shakeout Before The Move

MichaelXBT’s warning is less about the breakout itself and more about what happens right before it. He says the market is likely to push XRP lower first, flushing out holders who lack conviction.

That kind of move, in his view, is deliberate — designed to clear retail investors before the main move begins. Other analysts raised a similar concern in March, arguing that the next major price action could break the resolve of most ordinary XRP buyers.

Whether that shakeout plays out as predicted this week is anyone’s guess. For now, XRP sits at a crossroads, pressed against a structure that has been building for nearly a year.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView