Copper gold ratio repeats Bitcoin’s 2020 signal

The copper gold ratio has broken above its 200-day moving average for the first meaningful time since September 2020.

Summary

• The ratio now stands at 0.00142, with copper at $6.65 per pound and gold near $4,700 per ounce, up 25% from its recent lows.
• Previous surges in 2013, 2017, and 2021 aligned with the early stages of major Bitcoin price cycles.
• The correlation between Bitcoin and the ratio has rebounded sharply from near negative 1.0, suggesting the relationship is beginning to strengthen.

The copper gold ratio is a closely watched macro signal measuring the relative strength of copper, an industrial metal tied to economic expansion, against gold, which traditionally rises during risk-off conditions.

A rising ratio signals improving global risk appetite, and the current reading of 0.00142 represents a 25% climb from the ratio’s recent lows, according to market analysis tracking both assets.

The breakout above the 200-day moving average is the first of meaningful size since September 2020. That prior instance coincided with the early stages of the Bitcoin rally that carried the asset from roughly $10,000 to its then-record high. Comparable surges in 2013, 2017, and 2021 also aligned with the onset of major Bitcoin price cycles.

What the signal means for Bitcoin now

The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the copper gold ratio currently sits at negative 0.11 on a 20-day moving average. That number has rebounded sharply from near negative 1.0, suggesting the divergence phase is closing.

Historically, the correlation has moved toward 1.0 during Bitcoin’s strongest bull runs, with both assets trending together as macro risk appetite improves.

The ratio is also viewed as a leading indicator that has historically preceded Bitcoin price moves by several weeks to months, meaning any sustained Bitcoin response would likely unfold over the coming weeks rather than immediately.

The signal arrives alongside a separate CryptoQuant bullish reading, which flipped positive on May 12 for the first time since March 2023. That prior reading preceded a sustained run taking Bitcoin from $20,000 to above $73,000 by April 2024. Bitcoin currently tests the $79,000 to $82,000 range, with analysts flagging resistance at $82,000 to $83,000 and key support at $77,500.

Neither indicator constitutes a guarantee of further gains. Analysts consistently caution that correlation does not establish causation, and that macro signals can produce false breakouts, particularly in cycles where institutional ETF flows and regulatory dynamics shape Bitcoin’s trajectory in ways the copper gold ratio does not capture.