Nike (NKE) Stock Braces for Big Swing after Earnings Today — Here’s What Traders Are Betting On

TLDR

• Nike reports Q3 FY26 earnings after market close on March 31
• Options traders pricing in an ~8–9% move in either direction
• Wall Street expects EPS of $0.29, down 46.3% year-over-year; revenue est. $11.23B
• China remains the key pressure point — revenue there has fallen six quarters in a row
• Analysts maintain Buy ratings but have trimmed price targets ahead of the report

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Nike heads into Tuesday’s earnings report carrying a rough year. NKE stock is down roughly 20% year-to-date, weighed down by soft sales, margin pressure, and a China business that just won’t turn around.

NIKE, Inc., NKE

Wall Street is expecting Q3 FY26 EPS of $0.29 — a 46.3% drop from the same period last year. Revenue is forecast to dip 0.3% to $11.23 billion. Not exactly a rallying cry, but analysts are watching for signs that CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan is gaining traction.

Options traders are bracing for a big reaction. The April 2 weekly options chain is pricing in an 8–9% swing in either direction, putting the potential post-earnings range between roughly $47 on the downside and $55.50 on the upside.

Call activity is running well ahead of puts. The heaviest open interest sits at the 54 strike with 6,050 contracts, followed by the 55 and 60 strikes. Monday’s trading saw active buying in the 54, 55, and 56 calls — traders are leaning toward upside participation.

On the put side, the main hedge zone sits at the 49–50 strikes, with some tail protection at the 45 strike. The positioning suggests traders aren’t expecting a collapse, but they’re not complacent either.

The implied move of ~8.3% is slightly below Nike’s average post-earnings move of 9.4% over the past four quarters.

China: The Key Swing Factor

China continues to be the story no one wants to keep telling. Revenue from Greater China fell 17% in Q2 FY26, marking six consecutive quarters of decline. Investors will be listening closely to management commentary for any sign of stabilization.

BTIG’s Robert Drbul reiterated a Buy rating but trimmed his price target to $90 from $100. He sees “incremental underlying progress” in North America and expects management to keep making tough calls — including layoffs at Converse and logistics changes in Memphis.

Evercore’s Amit Daryanani also kept his Buy rating but cut his target to $69 from $77, lowering his FY27 EPS estimate to $2.00. He agrees the turnaround is moving slower than expected, but sees the World Cup — hosted in the U.S. this summer — as a potential near-term confidence boost.

What Analysts Are Watching

Wall Street’s overall consensus is Moderate Buy, based on 14 Buys and 6 Holds. The average price target of $73.33 implies 43% upside from current levels.

Key items on the earnings call agenda: demand trends in China, margin outlook, product innovation updates, inventory discipline, and any commentary on the World Cup strategy.

Results are due after the bell on Tuesday, March 31.

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