PlanB Says the Bitcoin Top Isn’t In, and the S2F Model Agrees

PlanB says Bitcoin’s top isn’t in as the S2F model points to more upside from halving-driven scarcity and cycle trends.

PlanB says the Bitcoin top is not in, and his Stock-to-Flow model still supports that view. 

The statement has renewed interest in three Medium articles published between 2019 and 2020. Those articles built the Stock-to-Flow framework and linked Bitcoin value to supply scarcity. 

They also shaped a long-running debate around halving cycles and Bitcoin price expectations.

Read also: 

PlanB’s S2F Model Tied Bitcoin Value to Scarcity

PlanB introduced the first model in March 2019 through “Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity.” In that article, he said scarcity was the main driver of value for monetary assets. 

They compared Bitcoin with gold and silver using the stock-to-flow ratio.

The stock-to-flow ratio measures existing supply against new yearly supply. At the time, Bitcoin had about 17.5 million coins in circulation. New yearly supply was about 0.7 million coins, which placed Bitcoin near monetary metals.

PlanB’s S2F model links scarcity to price, Source| PlaB/X

PlanB used monthly Bitcoin data from 2009 to early 2019. They applied a power-law regression between Bitcoin price and the stock-to-flow ratio. The model suggested a strong statistical link between higher scarcity and higher market value.

They also pointed to Bitcoin’s halving schedule as the core driver of rising scarcity. Every halving reduces new supply and raises the stock-to-flow ratio. That structure became the base for his long-term price outlook.

PlanB Defended the S2F Model Against EMH Criticism

In January 2020, PlanB published “Efficient Market Hypothesis and Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model.” That article addressed a common criticism of the first model. 

Critics argued that Bitcoin halvings were known in advance and should already be priced in.

PlanB answered that markets could still misprice Bitcoin because investors often overstated major risks. They listed government bans, hard forks, miner death spirals, scams, and 51% attacks. They said these fears affected how the market priced Bitcoin.

Moreover, they also compared Bitcoin with bonds, gold, and stocks through a risk-return chart. In that comparison, Bitcoin showed returns that sat far above the expected line. 

PlanB argued that classic models did not explain that gap well.

They added that futures and options markets showed no major pre-halving spike at the time. For them, that supported the case that fear remained part of Bitcoin pricing. 

That argument helped him defend the scarcity model against market efficiency claims.

Related Reading:  

S2FX Expanded the Model Across Bitcoin Phases and Metals

In April 2020, PlanB published “Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model,” also called S2FX. 

This version moved beyond a simple time-series Bitcoin chart. It treated Bitcoin’s post-halving eras as separate phases with distinct market roles.

They grouped Bitcoin history into four stages. Those stages were proof of concept, payments, e-gold, and financial assets. Each stage had its own stock-to-flow level and market value in the model.

PlanB then added silver and gold to the same regression framework. They reported a formula using market value and stock-to-flow on a log-log basis. The article said the model produced a very strong statistical fit across all data points.

That version raised the projected value for Bitcoin’s 2020 to 2024 phase. PlanB estimated a market value near $5.5 trillion. Based on about 19 million coins, that pointed to a Bitcoin price near $288,000.

Taken together, the three articles formed a clear progression. 

The first introduced the scarcity model, the second defended it, and the third expanded it. That framework still explains why PlanB says the Bitcoin top is not in. 

For their model, higher scarcity after halvings still leaves room for further upside.

The post PlanB Says the Bitcoin Top Isn’t In, and the S2F Model Agrees appeared first on Live Bitcoin News.