High fuel costs, weak peso force many Filipinos to trim Holy Week travel plans

By Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, Reporter

DANA D. CASTILLO had planned to shop for clothes and accessories when she travels to China over the Holy Week break. Instead, the 27‑year‑old government employee is now budgeting only for food, sightseeing and a few souvenirs.

“The crisis has compromised my target pocket money for traveling. I have to adjust my planned expenses for my trip,” she told BusinessWorld by telephone.

Ms. Castillo, who is pursuing a master’s degree in Laguna while paying her own tuition, said higher daily costs have left less room for discretionary spending. Her commute to school has gone up by P20 since the crisis began.

“Nowadays, you can still travel, but you won’t be able to enjoy it because you have to limit your spending,” she said in mixed English and Filipino.

Her experience reflects a broader shift among Filipino travelers as higher fuel prices and a weaker peso squeeze household budgets ahead of one of the country’s busiest travel periods.

Holy Week typically sends millions of Filipinos to provinces or overseas destinations, driven by religious observance, family visits and leisure travel. This year, those movements come as oil prices rise amid war in the Middle East, pushing up transport and living costs and eroding purchasing power.

Passenger spending patterns already show the strain. While Filipinos are still traveling, they are cutting back on nonessential purchases, analysts said.

“A weaker peso and higher oil prices hit travel from both ends as fares go up while purchasing power goes down,” Robert Dan J. Roces, an economist at SM Investments Corp., said in a Viber message.

“The squeeze is most visible in middle‑income households since they still travel, but may adjust by shortening trips, cutting extras, or even choosing closer destinations rather than canceling altogether,” he said.

John Paolo R. Rivera, a senior research fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, said caution is shaping Holy Week behavior.

“Households may still travel during Holy Week due to its cultural importance, but they are more likely to shorten trips, choose cheaper options, or reduce spending on leisure activities,” he said in a Viber message.

Industry executives say travel plans for this year’s break are unlikely to change dramatically because many bookings were made weeks earlier.

“Fuel prices have just started moving, and most Filipinos have already made their bookings,” Alfred Lay, director for hotels, tourism and leisure at Leechiu Property Consultants, said in a Viber message. “Holy Week travel is just too deeply ingrained in our culture to cancel lightly.”

The bigger concern is how long higher costs will persist if geopolitical risks remain unresolved, Mr. Lay said.

TIGHTER BUDGETS, SHORTER TRIPS
The peso weakened to a record low of P60.55 against the dollar on March 27, reflecting the currency’s sensitivity to oil price shocks. Fuel prices in Metro Manila continued to surge last week, with diesel reaching as much as P144.20 a liter and gasoline P102.50 a liter. Kerosene prices have risen to about P166 a liter.

Those increases have filtered through the transport sector. Jet fuel prices rose 12.6% week on week to $197 per barrel as of March 29 and surged 118.8% from a year earlier, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Airfares are poised to rise further after the Civil Aeronautics Board raised the passenger fuel surcharge to Level 8 for April, the highest in almost two years. At that level, airlines may charge fuel surcharges ranging from P253 to P787 for domestic flights. International flights from the Philippines may carry surcharges of P835.05 to P6,208.98, depending on distance.

“Even if the Middle East situation is resolved tomorrow, it would still take months for fuel costs to come down meaningfully — and the airline industry doesn’t just flip a switch,” Mr. Lay said.

Higher fuel prices are also weighing on land transport. NLEX Corp., a unit of Metro Pacific Tollways Corp., projects a 1% decline in traffic volume this year due to elevated fuel prices.

The Parañaque Integrated Terminal Exchange last week warned of possible bus shortages as some operators limit trips to reduce fuel consumption.

The oil shock, which has strengthened the dollar, is driving higher costs across airfares, accommodation, fuel surcharges and food, said Jonathan L. Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co.

“For ordinary Filipinos, that means tighter budgets or shorter trips, even for nearby destinations,” he said in a Viber message.

Those pressures are already reshaping spending behavior. Room upgrades, tour packages and higher‑end dining are among the first casualties as travelers pare back, Mr. Lay said.

Hotels are responding selectively. Joey Roi H. Bondoc, director and head of research at Colliers Philippines, said some local hotels have offered discounts of up to 50% to attract guests.

“Previously, if Holy Week was easily a peak period, we might not see that at least this year given increasing gas prices,” he said by telephone.

Travelers are being urged to plan carefully. “Plan early, lock in promos, and be flexible,” Mr. Ravelas said.

“Travelers shouldn’t expect relief just because the news cycle moves on,” Mr. Lay said. “Layer in the peso weakness and broader inflation, and I’d say operators should be planning for a budget-conscious traveler well into the rest of the year.”

For some, that adjustment is already under way. Arthur H. Bo, a 25‑year‑old marketing professional based in Manila, opted to spend Holy Week in Pampanga instead of flying to Cebu.

Traveling by land is cheaper, he said. Mr. Bo chose to stay in an Airbnb rather than a hotel and plans to curb food spending by bringing packed meals or eating at fastfood chains.

Two weeks before the trip, he scaled it back to an overnight stay from the three days he had originally planned.

“Usually, when I travel, I have wiggle room to spend,” he told BusinessWorld by telephone. “But since the crisis happened, I’ve been forced to be mindful of my budget.”