Tesla (TSLA) Stock Is Down 23% From Its All-Time High — Is This a Buying Opportunity?

TLDR

• Tesla’s 2025 vehicle deliveries fell to 1.64 million, raising fears of a third straight year of weak growth
• Total revenue dropped 3% to $94.8 billion, with automotive sales down 9% to $69.5 billion
• The energy business grew 27% to $12.8 billion in revenue, with $3.8 billion in gross profit
• U.S. regulators opened a probe into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles over Full Self-Driving visibility concerns
• Tesla invested $2 billion in xAI and reaffirmed plans for Cybercab production in 2026

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Tesla is one of the most closely watched stocks on Wall Street. But the story around the company has changed. It is no longer just about selling electric cars. It is now a bet on energy storage, robotics, artificial intelligence, and self-driving software.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

The car business is still the center of it all, though. And right now, that business is under pressure.

Tesla delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in 2025. That is roughly flat compared to the year before. Analysts are now worried the company could see a third straight year of stagnant delivery growth if demand does not pick up.

The financial numbers back that up. Total revenue fell 3% to $94.8 billion. Automotive sales dropped 9% to $69.5 billion. Gross margins for the auto segment came in at 17.8%, well below what investors had hoped for.

Capital spending has climbed above $20 billion. Analysts have cut 2026 delivery forecasts, and concerns about free cash flow are growing.

Energy Is the Bright Spot

While the car side has slowed, Tesla’s energy business is growing fast. Revenue from that segment hit $12.8 billion in 2025, up 27% from the year before. Energy storage deployments reached 46.7 GWh for the year.

Gross profit from the energy segment came in at $3.8 billion. That is a big jump from 2024 and shows that products like Megapack and Powerwall are becoming real contributors to Tesla’s bottom line.

The energy business is now helping to offset the weakness in auto revenue. That shift is worth watching.

Tesla’s stock still trades at a high valuation. That is because investors are not pricing it like a traditional car company. They are paying for what could come next: self-driving robotaxis, humanoid robots, and AI software.

Tesla confirmed a $2 billion investment in xAI this year. It also reaffirmed that Cybercab production is on track for 2026. The company has been calling itself a physical AI company, not just an automaker.

Regulatory Risk Around Self-Driving

Self-driving is Tesla’s biggest potential growth driver. But it also carries real risk.

On March 19, U.S. regulators upgraded a probe into 3.2 million Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving. The concern is that the system may fail to detect or warn drivers in poor visibility conditions.

Tesla is also still working to get broader regulatory approvals in Europe.

Analysts and investors will be watching closely to see if Tesla can keep growing its energy business while stabilizing deliveries. The company’s next steps on Cybercab and Optimus will also be key data points.

Final Thoughts

Tesla’s auto business is under pressure, but the energy segment is growing fast and the AI roadmap is still intact. The next 12 months will show whether the bull case holds up.

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