Florida Republicans worry redistricting might backfire after election upset

President Donald Trump has been pressuring states to redraw congressional districts so he stands a chance of keeping the House under his control. But after Tuesday's election upset, Republicans are reconsidering his demands.

Punch Bowl News reported Thursday that next month, Florida's GOP-controlled legislature will redraw lines that could create anywhere from two to five Republican seats. Republicans in the Florida congressional delegation are rethinking the strategy, fearful "that an over-aggressive remap could backfire."

So far, it has, with California and Virginia redistricting to eliminate GOP seats, nullifying any gains so far for the GOP.

“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.) told Punch Bowl. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”

“You could potentially do two [new GOP seats,]” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said. “I think after that, you are really, really, really, really risking a very large overreach, which I think is in the Democrats’ best interest.”

The issue is that the Republicans are going off the successes of the 2024 election when Latino voters cast ballots for Trump. The coalition of voters Trump needed in 2024 has completely evaporated. As the report explained, counting on the 2024 coalition to win in 2026 is "far from certain, and some Florida Republicans are warning that such a move is perilous."

On Tuesday, a Democrat won a state House district that Trump won by 11 points. The Democrat on Tuesday won by about 2 percentage points, a 12 to 13-point shift. Another upset in northern Florida is close enough to warrant a recount, but the Democratic candidate in that state Senate district covering Tampa Bay is currently ahead. Trump won that district by 7 points in 2024.

"Florida saw a big lurch to the right at the presidential level in 2024, leaving Democratic Reps. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Darren Soto looking more vulnerable," Punch Bowl reported. "All are targets in redistricting and represent significant populations of Latino voters."

“They need to be really careful,” Gimenez said of the GOP's move. He suggested that Republicans study the special election. “They should look at what happened there. By trying to create more, you may end up with less.”

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