Worst-case scenario: At least 50% rice, pork, chicken price hike if Gulf crisis persists

MANILA, Philippines – Retail prices of rice, pork, and chicken may increase by at least half under the worst case scenario or within 180 days of infrastructure damage and with average oil prices reaching $200 per barrel, according to the Department of Agriculture.

In a worst case scenario, chicken is expected to have the highest spike – its average retail price of P200 per kilo prior to the Middle East crisis could rise to P324.64 per kilo or a 62% increase.

In the same scenario, pork (kasim and liempo) prices are estimated to increase by 59% and rice prices (local, well-milled) by 49%. Meanwhile, the DA estimates a slight increase in prices of tomatoes, eggplants, cabbage, and carrots.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said that as of the moment, prices are still within the pre-conflict status.

Rice prices, he said, may begin to increase by August. Pork prices are stable because of imports still in cold storage. There is also “a little bit of overproduction” with chicken and broiler farm gate prices remain low.

“So maybe the effect to us now would be on freight [cost],” Tiu Laurel said during a Senate hearing on Tuesday, March 25.

The scenarios that his agency presented before the Senate committee on Tuesday are based on local production. With the ongoing crisis, crucial farm inputs like fuel and fertilizer are expected to drive up production cost.

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“If we’re watching the prices for consumers, there’s always the option to import or reduce tariffs if needed,” said Laurel.

“But of course, as the department secretary, I don’t want that,” he added.

Agriculture officials have repeatedly said rice supply remains stable and adequate in the country, especially since it is currently harvest season. On Tuesday, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national energy emergency. – Rappler.com