Why Bitcoin Is Falling Despite $1.1 Billion in ETF Inflows

In brief

Bitcoin fell about 4%–5% even as U.S. spot ETFs recorded over $1.1 billion in inflows across seven days.
Rising oil prices and sticky inflation have pushed traders to scale back expectations for rate cuts.
Key support around $70,000 is now in focus as macro conditions continue to drive short-term moves.

Bitcoin continues to struggle to maintain a foothold at elevated prices even as institutional investors continue pouring money into the asset, hinting at a growing disconnect between short-term macro pressures and longer-term demand.

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.16 billion in inflows over seven consecutive sessions through Tuesday.

Wednesday saw its first daily outflow of around $129 million, according to CoinGlass data, as prices declined about 4% following a shift in interest-rate expectations.

It’s worth noting that ETF flow data is reported after the market’s daily close and doesn’t capture intraday positioning.

Still, the trend over seven consecutive days confirms institutional conviction remains “firm beneath the surface,” Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at BTC Markets, told Decrypt in an emailed statement.

“What distinguishes this pullback from prior corrections is the continued flow of institutional money into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs,” Lucas said. “That sustained demand points to a maturing investor base treating Bitcoin as a longer-term portfolio allocation rather than a purely speculative trade.”

The world’s largest crypto was down 4.2% to $71,235 late Wednesday after topping out near $75,600 earlier in the week, CoinGecko data shows. It remains up about 3.5% over the past month.

The pullback came as traders reassessed the outlook for monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75% while signalling inflation would remain elevated, lifting its 2026 forecast to around 2.7%.

Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect “some progress” on inflation, though “not as much as we had hoped,” reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance.

Markets were already on edge in the lead-up to the decision from the Federal Open Markets Committee. A hotter-than-expected producer price index reading and a surge in oil prices have complicated the outlook for rate cuts.

Brent crude futures rose above $110 a barrel late Wednesday amid escalating attacks on Middle Eastern energy infrastructure, including Iranian strikes on a Qatari facility tied to global liquefied natural gas exports.

The combination has led traders to scale back expectations for near-term easing, weighing on both equities and crypto alike. The S&P 500 fell 1.36% on Wednesday, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.46%.

Key support for Bitcoin around $70,000 is now in focus with further downside risk if incoming data, including jobless claims and manufacturing surveys, reinforces inflation concerns.

Thursday’s readings are forecast by economists to show a modest rise in jobless claims from 213,000 to 215,000, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to ease to 8.4 from 16.3, signalling slower but still positive regional factory activity.