GBP/USD falls 0.21% on Wednesday following the release of a hot US inflation report, prompting investors to cut their dovish bets on the Federal Reserve. At the time of writing, the pair trades at around 1.3320.
Stronger inflation data and Middle East tensions boost the Dollar, weighing on Sterling
An escalation of the Middle East conflict soured market mood, a tailwind for the US Dollar’s haven appeal. Israel’s attack on Iran’s gas facilities prompted a reaction by Tehran, which said that they will strike the enemy’s infrastructure, according to Al-Jazeera.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s performance against six currencies, edges up 0.20% to 99.76 after the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) revealed that producer-side inflation rose sharply in both headline and core figures.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) in February expanded by 3.4% YoY, exceeding estimates and January’s 2.9% reading. Core PPI, which excludes volatile items, jumped from 3.5% to 3.9% YoY for the same period.
Ahead, traders eye the Federal Reserve’s decision. Powell and Co. are expected to hold rates unchanged while releasing their economic projections for the full year. Money markets would be eyeing the dot plot, in which Fed officials express their expectations for the path of interest rates.
After the release of the monetary policy statement, market participants’ focus would shift to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference.
Following Powell’s press conference, attention will turn to the Bank of England (BoE), which will also announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. Traders expect the BoE to keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%, with the first move towards a rate hike expected in March 2027, driven by high energy prices sparked by the Middle East conflict.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3320. The pair holds a mildly bearish near-term bias as spot slips back below the clustered simple moving averages around 1.3510–1.3520, confirming a loss of upward momentum seen after repeated failures near the descending resistance trend line from 1.3869. The recent pivot lower from the 1.36 area reinforces the significance of that downward-sloping line, which continues to cap bounces and guide price action lower. The FXS Fed Sentiment Index has stabilized after prior weakness, offering little immediate support for the pound and leaving price action driven primarily by the technical squeeze between the broken moving-average band above and the prior rising support base below.
Initial resistance emerges at the 1.3355–1.3360 region, where recent highs converge with the latest rejection from the descending trend line, followed by stronger resistance at 1.3450 and then near 1.3530, around the upper moving-average cluster. A daily close above that band would be needed to neutralize the bearish tone and reopen the 1.36 handle. On the downside, immediate support is located at 1.3300, ahead of the 1.3220 zone, which aligns with prior lows and the lower portion of the former rising trend structure from 1.3035. A break below 1.3220 would expose the 1.3100 area, where the broader uptrend from the start of the move began to build a base.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on March 18 at 16:36 to say that the US Core PPI print in January was 3.5%, not 3.6%.)
Pound Sterling Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.77% | -0.58% | -0.03% | -0.18% | -1.14% | -0.79% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.77% | 0.19% | 0.64% | 0.57% | -0.38% | -0.04% | 0.65% | |
| GBP | 0.58% | -0.19% | 0.59% | 0.38% | -0.56% | -0.23% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | 0.03% | -0.64% | -0.59% | -0.14% | -1.10% | -0.75% | -0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.18% | -0.57% | -0.38% | 0.14% | -1.00% | -0.61% | 0.09% | |
| AUD | 1.14% | 0.38% | 0.56% | 1.10% | 1.00% | 0.34% | 1.04% | |
| NZD | 0.79% | 0.04% | 0.23% | 0.75% | 0.61% | -0.34% | 0.67% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | -0.65% | -0.52% | 0.09% | -0.09% | -1.04% | -0.67% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-slips-as-hot-us-ppi-fuels-fed-hawkish-repricing-202603181602
