USD/CAD eases toward 1.3700 as BoC holds rates, Fed decision in focus

USD/CAD trims part of its earlier gains on Wednesday as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds some support following the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy announcement. However, the pair lacks follow-through selling as the US Dollar (USD) holds firms ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision due at 18:00 GMT.

At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3701. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading near 99.85, rebounding after two days of decline.

The BoC left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, maintaining the level seen since October. In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Tiff Macklem said, “We can raise rates if we see signs that energy prices are going to cause persistent inflation.” He added, “If energy prices come back down and we see more weakness in the economy, we can lower our policy rate.”

In his accompanying statement, Macklem highlighted ongoing uncertainty tied to US trade policy and geopolitical risks, while warning that the US-Israel war with Iran is pushing Oil prices higher and could lift inflation in the near term.

Macklem added that it is too early to assess the impact of the war on Canada’s economic growth. He noted that if higher Oil prices are sustained, they could support income from energy exports. However, he cautioned that elevated energy costs would also squeeze consumers, leaving them with less income for other spending.

He also said the Governing Council will look through the war’s near-term impact on inflation, but warned that if energy prices stay high, the Bank will not allow those effects to become persistent. Macklem emphasized that the Bank stands ready to respond as needed, as policymakers continue to assess the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, while closely monitoring developments in the Middle East.

Focus now shifts to the Fed decision, with rates expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a second straight meeting. Markets will closely watch the updated SEP, dot plot, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on the monetary policy path amid an evolving inflation outlook.

Economic Indicator

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).