Key highlights:
- HBAR completes 5-wave decline from January highs, potentially ending corrective structure
- Analyst indicates 5-wave move up could confirm start of wave C or wave 3 impulse
- Fibonacci levels target upside beyond $0.12 with invalidation at recent lows near $0.07
Hedera has been building something that technical analysts love to spot. After months of grinding lower within a broader corrective structure, HBAR is showing signs that the downtrend may be ending.
MCO Global shared the setup on X, noting that a clear 5-wave move up from here could indicate that wave C or wave 3 has started.
This is not just another random price move. Elliott Wave analysis provides a framework for understanding market structure, and the current setup on HBAR’s charts indicates something significant may be unfolding.
On-chain data aligns with wave count
The Glassnode charts provide another dimension to the analysis. The HBAR market cap currently sits in a range that reflects the consolidation visible on price charts.
The drawdown from all-time highs hovers near 80% to 83%, a level that historically marks extreme pessimism and potential accumulation zones. When an asset trades 80% below its all-time high, it often means that most of the selling pressure has been exhausted.
Sellers who wanted to sell have largely sold. The remaining holders are those with conviction or those trapped at higher prices who refuse to capitulate. This type of extreme drawdown can set the stage for significant rallies when sentiment turns.
The wave structure reveals a potential turning point
Looking at the 4-hour chart shared by MCO Global, the wave count becomes visible. The analyst has named the five waves that have formed as the price fell from the highs around $0.12 in January down to the lows around $0.07 in February.
This complete five-wave move is the end of the corrective cycle, which is often an indication that the selling pressure has been exhausted. The analyst has labeled the five waves as (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5), with the corrective movements in between the impulsive moves.
Wave (3) appears as the strongest downward move, a typical characteristic of Elliott Wave patterns where the third wave extends. Wave (4) then bounced into Fibonacci resistance before wave (5) took the HBAR price to its final low.
The completion of this five-wave structure is significant. In Elliott Wave theory, a full five-wave decline typically completes a larger degree correction, setting the stage for a reversal in the opposite direction. MCO Global indicates that a clear 5-wave move up from here could confirm that wave C or wave 3 of a new impulse has started.
The HBAR price is trading around $0.09936 on the four-hour chart, after bouncing up from the February low. The 100-period SMA is trading at $0.09683, which has crossed beneath the current price, indicating a structural change after months of trading beneath the major averages.
Key levels on the HBAR 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart provides further clarity. Right now, HBAR is trading at $0.09936, slightly lower for the day but still well above support. The Fibonacci levels indicate where the price could potentially be headed.
4-hour HBAR price chart analysis.
The HBAR price currently sits at $0.09936, the 0.618 retracement level. A break above opens the next targets at $0.10634 (0.5 retracement) and $0.11127 (0.382 retracement). Clearing these levels could set up a challenge of $0.11737, which aligns with January highs and the 0.236 retracement.
Looking at the lower support points, we have $0.09439, which is where the price has retraced 0.786 of the last move, $0.09021, which is where the price has retraced 0.886 of the last move. The volume comes in at 9.76 million HBAR, good but not quite at levels that would indicate a strong breakout.
The HBAR daily chart shows the bigger picture
The daily timeframe stretches back to early 2025 and shows the full arc of HBAR’s decline and potential recovery. The Fibonacci levels on this chart provide longer-term context for where the HBAR price could go if the wave structure resolves to the upside.
The 2.272 extension at $0.13343 represents the first major resistance above current levels. A break above that would target the 1.618 extension at $0.19454 and the 1.272 extension at $0.22687. These levels align with previous price action and could act as magnets if momentum builds.
Daily HBAR price chart analysis.
The 0.618 level at $0.28798 and the 0.236 at $0.32368 stand as longer-term objectives for a full recovery to previous highs. The 100-period SMA sits at $0.10622, providing immediate resistance above current price.
The RSI on the daily reads 53.40, neutral and with plenty of room to run. No overbought concerns here, suggesting that the daily trend has not yet become extended. Volume on the daily shows 24.23 million HBAR, a significant increase from the consolidation period.
What a 5-wave move up would mean for HBAR
MCO Global sees a potential 5-wave move up confirming wave C or wave 3 of a new impulse, signaling a structural shift from the downtrend.
First target is a break above $0.12, with Fibonacci levels guiding the path higher. Invalidation sits at $0.07; a break below would mean lower prices remain ahead.
CoinCodex’s 1-month HBAR price prediction places the token at $0.1394, pointing to significant upside from current levels near $0.099 if the bullish wave structure confirms.
For traders who study Elliott Wave, this is the kind of setup worth watching. The structure is clear. The next few weeks will provide the answer.
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Source: https://coincodex.com/article/83063/hedera-price-prediction-hbar-repeats-wave-pattern-that-preceded-every-major-rally/
