Bitcoin (BTC) risks turning its rebound into a classic “bull trap” as the price rejects at strong resistance.
Key points:
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Bitcoin faces flat Coinbase spot demand and an open interest divergence as prices rise above $75,000.
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This risks ending the rebound due to structural weakness, analysis warns.
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Any push higher toward $80,000 will be “challenging.”
BTC market lacks “spot buying support”
New research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant released on Tuesday warns that the recent BTC price rebound may collapse.
“The Bitcoin market is currently exposing a critical structural vulnerability as it transitions from a healthy spot-led regime to an overheated rally driven primarily by derivatives,” contributor Easy On Chain wrote in a QuickTake blog post.
Several factors support the theory, including the Coinbase Premium Index — the difference in price between Coinbase’s BTC/USD and Binance’s BTC/USDT pairs.
Despite BTC/USD hitting six-week highs, the index continues to dip into negative territory, pointing to a lack of US spot demand.
“In this absence of spot-buying support, we are witnessing an extreme decoupling between investor cohorts where smart money is tactically distributing its supply,” Easy On Chain continued.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuantFellow CryptoQuant contributor MAC_D agreed, drawing a clear distinction between old and new investors.
“Recent on-chain data shows that OG investors are distributing, while new investors are entering the market, indicating a clear transfer of ownership,” they wrote in a separate Quicktake post.
The core issue, however, is with open interest (OI), which shows the market in a precarious situation.
“On the 1-hour timeframe, a divergence between price and open interest is emerging. While the spot market shows strength, futures traders appear reluctant to take on additional risk,” MAC_D continued.
Bitcoin OI chart. Source: CryptoQuantBitcoin price upside will be “challenging”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin faces a wall of selling pressure in the mid-$70,000 zone, which coincides with old local lows from April 2025.
Related: $58K BTC price still in play? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Data from CoinGlass shows price stalling midway through that ask-liquidity at $76,000 before reversing.
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlassMarket participants thus remain level-headed when it comes to a broader market recovery.
In his latest X analysis, Keith Alan, cofounder of trading resource Material Indicators, referenced various moving average (MA) trend lines and proprietary trading tools to put the odds of a full bull-market comeback in context.
“Bulls are currently attempting to flip resistance at the Q2 2024 Timescape Level, and now psychological resistance at $75k is coming into focus. If bulls can push higher the next targets are at the Q2 2025 Timescape Levels at $78.3k and $82.5k,” he explained.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Keith Alan/XTrader Mister Crypto, meanwhile, drew comparisons between current price action and that from earlier in 2026, where BTC/USD offered a relief bounce before breaking below support.
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