Sunrun (RUN) Stock Falls 28% on Weak 2026 Cash Flow Guidance

TLDR

• Sunrun stock fell 28% to $14.74 on Friday after issuing a cautious 2026 outlook
• Q4 earnings of 38 cents per share beat the 3-cent analyst estimate; revenue rose 124% to $1.16 billion
• 2026 cash generation guidance of $250M–$450M implies a decline from $377M in 2025
• Jefferies downgraded RUN to Hold from Buy, keeping a $22 price target
• Sunrun did not announce a dividend or buyback, disappointing investors who had expected capital returns

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Q4 earnings came in at 38 cents per share, well ahead of the 3-cent analyst estimate. Revenue hit $1.16 billion, up 124% year-over-year. A big chunk of that growth came from selling newly originated leases to a third party — a new move for the company.

But the guidance is what rattled the market.

Sunrun projected 2026 cash generation of $250 million to $450 million. The midpoint of that range — $350 million — sits below the $377 million the company generated in 2025. That’s a step backward, and Wall Street noticed.

Sunrun Inc., RUN

The stock fell 28% to $14.74 on Friday. That stings, especially after a 182% run over the prior 12 months and an 11% gain so far this year heading into the print.

Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy, keeping its $22 price target. Analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith pointed to what he called a “defensive posture” entering fiscal 2026.

Jefferies Flags Cautious Tone

Dumoulin-Smith noted that while other residential solar companies have been sounding more confident about a market recovery, Sunrun’s earnings call told a different story — one of prolonged contraction and tighter balance-sheet management.

Sunrun also plans to cut its affiliate network by around 40%. Jefferies sees that as a signal that overall installations and subscriber additions will slow.

Investors had been hoping for a dividend or share buyback announcement, especially given strong 2025 cash generation and progress toward the company’s 2x leverage target. Sunrun didn’t commit to either. Management said capital returns weren’t ruled out, but the priority for now is safe-harbor investments and debt reduction.

Jefferies flagged tighter tax equity markets and quality concerns within Sunrun’s partner network as additional headwinds.

The brokerage said it remains positive on Sunrun over the longer term but sees limited upside in 2026 until capital markets stabilize.

One Analyst Pushes Back

Not everyone is bearish. Clear Street analyst Tim Moore reiterated a Buy rating and raised his price target to $24 from $23.

Moore said he’s not worried about volume declines, pointing to Sunrun’s focus on higher-margin channels. He sees the monetization of newly originated subscriptions as a path to stronger profits even if raw volume dips.

Jefferies also noted that third-party originators like Sunrun are positioned to grow roughly 25% this year following the expiration of the 25D tax credit — though that tailwind hasn’t shown up in the guidance yet.

Sunrun’s cautious tone diverges from peers like Enphase Energy, which has leaned into prepaid lease and loan structures as the industry resets.

The stock closed Friday at $14.74, down 28% on the day.

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