U.S. Iran Nuclear Talks 2026: What It Means for Gold Prices This Week

TLDR

• Gold futures fell 0.7% to $5,191.60 but stayed above $5,100 on Feb. 26, 2026
• Markets are watching U.S.-Iran talks, with a breakdown potentially pushing gold higher
• Gold is up over 3.5% for the week, driven by trade policy uncertainty and geopolitical tension
• Technical analysts see a bullish setup, with resistance targets at $5,500 and then $6,000
• High U.S. interest rates are capping short-term gains by reducing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset

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Gold pulled back slightly in early trading on Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026. New York Comex futures dropped 0.7% to $5,191.60 a troy ounce.

Micro Gold Futures,Apr-2026 (MGC=F)

Despite the dip, prices held firmly above $5,100. The metal is still up more than 3.5% for the week.

The slight drop came as investors weighed the possibility that U.S. interest rates could stay on hold for some time. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates tend to make it less attractive compared to other assets.

Markets were also watching U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for Thursday. The outcome of those talks is seen as a key short-term driver for gold prices.

Steve Witkoff, the U.S.’s chief negotiator with Iran, has warned that Tehran could produce fissile material for a nuclear bomb within days. That statement has kept traders on edge.

Iran’s nuclear program has not advanced much since the U.S. and Israel struck its three main nuclear sites last June, according to experts and diplomats cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Tony Sage, CEO of Critical Metals, said markets are watching the talks closely. He said a breakdown in negotiations could push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

Analysts at ING said any escalation involving Iran would likely add support to gold’s price. They said the structural drivers behind gold’s earlier rally remain firmly in place.

Technical Setup Points Higher

From a technical standpoint, the picture looks bullish. RHB Retail Research analyst Joseph Chai said a fresh bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart shows selling pressure has eased.

Chai said gold bulls have returned to the driver’s seat. He sees a potential move toward resistance at $5,500 per ounce.

A breakout above $5,500 could push prices toward $6,000 per ounce, Chai added. Both the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages are trending upward, supporting that outlook.

What’s Keeping a Lid on Prices

The main drag on gold right now is rate expectations. If the U.S. Federal Reserve holds rates steady for longer, non-yielding assets like gold face more competition from interest-bearing investments.

Renewed uncertainty around U.S. trade policy has helped offset that pressure. Defensive positioning has kept prices from falling below the $5,100 level.

Spot gold was 0.6% higher at $5,196.37 per ounce in Asian trading, showing some recovery from the early futures decline.

As of Thursday morning, markets remained focused on the outcome of the Washington-Tehran discussions as the next major catalyst for gold’s direction.

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