ATOM is drawing a weak picture at the $2.13 level with a 4.86% weekly decline, maintaining the dominance of the main downtrend. While the market structure tests critical supports, the positive histogram in MACD offers hope for short-term recovery, though Bitcoin’s downtrend creates pressure for altcoins.
ATOM in the Weekly Market Summary
ATOM remained in a narrow $2.11-$2.26 trading range last week and retreated to the $2.13 level with a 4.86% loss. This movement aligns with the general weakness in the crypto market; RSI at 47.63 is wandering in the neutral zone, while the MACD shows a positive histogram, suggesting a mild bullish divergence may be forming in momentum. The volume profile remained limited at $49.19M, requiring position traders to carefully monitor accumulation or distribution signals. The market structure indicates a bearish short-term filter below EMA20 ($2.18), and the main trend filter highlights bearish resistance at $2.61. In the big picture, ATOM’s long-term downtrend continues unbroken; however, multi-timeframe confluence with 10 strong levels (1D: 2S/2R, 3D: 2S/1R, 1W: 1S/4R) clarifies strategic decision points. For position traders, the focus is on whether trend integrity holds during tests of these levels.
Trend Structure and Market Phases
Long-Term Trend Analysis
The long-term trend structure reflects a clear downtrend for ATOM; higher timeframes (1W/1M) dominate with lower highs and lower lows formation. With the primary trend defined as downtrend, price continues to stay below the main $2.61 resistance filter. This structure reinforces the distribution phase ongoing since the peaks at the end of 2025. Momentum indicators are mixed: RSI at 47.63 is neutral, but the MACD histogram gives a bullish signal with positive divergence – this could be a warning before trend reversal. In the market cycle context, ATOM’s macro cycle is suppressed by rising Bitcoin dominance and delayed altcoin season. Trend integrity will remain intact as long as it holds above the $1.9722 major support; a breakdown increases downside acceleration risk. From a portfolio manager perspective, selective short or wait-and-see approaches take precedence over aggressive long positions in this phase.
Accumulation/Distribution Analysis
Market phase analysis shows dominant distribution patterns in ATOM: Weekly candles reflect indecision with doji-like closes, consistent with low-volume selling in the volume profile. The spike rejected from $2.26 signals smart money distribution on the upside. Accumulation characteristics are not yet clear; there is a slight volume increase around $2.0810, but the overall profile is bearish. From a Wyckoff methodology perspective, we are in the secondary test phase – a strong accumulation at $1.9722 could enable a phase shift. Distribution signals: Upper band rejection and close below EMA20. Position traders should be cautious of false breakouts in this phase; confirmation with confluence levels is essential.
Multi-Timeframe Confluence
Daily Chart View
On the daily timeframe, ATOM held at $2.13 with a slight recovery from the $2.11 local support; however, there is confluence with 2 supports (around $2.0810, $1.9722) and 2 resistances ($2.2220, $2.3070). RSI is neutral, MACD implies momentum shift with bullish histogram. Short-term bearish MA stack (price below EMA20) does not break the trend structure. Daily pivots make $2.18 an inflection point – a break above targets $2.22. In altcoin dynamics, BTC correlation is high; daily BTC drops add extra pressure on ATOM.
Weekly Chart View
From a weekly perspective, the downtrend remains intact: 1 support ($1.9722) and 4 resistances (including main $2.61) form strong clusters. Weekly close at $2.13 gives bearish confirmation below EMA20. Volume contraction signals a consolidation phase; upside objective $2.9460 has a low score (20/100) but could be reachable with BTC relief rally. The market phase looks like a distribution tail before transition to accumulation. Multi-TF confluence score is high: 10 level alignments are ideal for strategic trade setups.
Critical Decision Points
Main supports: $1.9722 (score 67/100, major confluence), $2.0810 (65/100, daily pivot). Resistances: $2.2220 (81/100, high-score breakout level), $2.3070 (61/100), $2.61 (trend filter). Upside objective $2.9460; downside risk $1.2495. These points will define direction: Above $2.2220 signals bullish shift, below $1.9722 accelerated bear. R/R calculation: 1:2+ from upside, 1:3+ potential from downside. Check detailed levels in ATOM Spot Analysis.
Weekly Strategy Recommendation
In the Bullish Case
Break above $2.2220 and retest/hold confirmation at $2.3070 activates long bias. Target: $2.61, then $2.9460. Entry: Pullback above $2.22, stop below $2.0810. R/R 1:2.5, confluence with BTC above $65,398. Position sizing 2-3% of portfolio, trailing stop with EMA20. This scenario requires MACD bullish continuation.
In the Bearish Case
Break below $1.9722 triggers short: Target $1.2495. Entry: Confirmation below $1.97, stop above $2.0810. High R/R (1:3+), supported by BTC below $64,323. Continuation of distribution phase likely; wait for volume spike for aggressive shorts. Optimize leveraged setups with data from ATOM Futures Analysis.
Bitcoin Correlation
ATOM shows high correlation with BTC (0.85+); BTC at $64,906 in downtrend and -3.93% 24h change pressures altcoins. BTC key supports $64,323 / $61,533 are critical – if they fail to hold, ATOM downside accelerates to $1.97. BTC resistances above $65,398 / $68,196 provide relief, triggering ATOM $2.22 breakout. BTC Supertrend bearish dominance increase delays altcoin rotation; position traders should hedge ATOM shorts in BTC below $61,533 scenario. Follow BTC context for ATOM and other analyses.
Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week
Next week’s focus: $1.9722 support test and $2.2220 resistance challenge. BTC hold at $64,323 supports ATOM stabilization; breakdown increases volatility. While trend structure remains bearish, MACD divergence is a bullish wildcard. Position traders should stay disciplined with confluence levels – wait for confirmation instead of early longs. Monitor volume increase and macro news (Cosmos ecosystem updates).
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/atom-technical-analysis-23-february-2026-weekly-strategy
