Bitcoin: Here’s When the Bottom Could Be Reached According to History

The current Bitcoin cycle is beginning to resemble prior fractal structures that historically ended with an October low.

According to analysis shared by Crypto Rover, if historical repetition holds, Bitcoin could form its cycle bottom around October.

The chart labeled “Bitcoin: Repetition Fractal Cycle” outlines recurring four-year cycles consisting of accumulation, markup, distribution, and bear market phases. The current structure appears to be tracking a similar rhythm.

Source: https://x.com/cryptorover/status/2025651303825670507

The Fractal Structure Behind the Projection

The visual framework divides Bitcoin’s historical price action into repeating four-year arcs. Each cycle includes:

• A bear market decline
• A prolonged accumulation phase
• A markup expansion
• A distribution peak

In prior cycles, major bottoms aligned with the transition from bear market to accumulation, often forming several months after the cycle top.

The chart highlights previous bottom zones with vertical markers and overlays cyclical arcs beneath price action. The current projection places the potential bottom window in October, consistent with how previous cycles resolved.

Why October Appears in the Model

The reasoning is timing-based rather than price-target driven. Past cycle bottoms did not occur immediately after sharp corrections; they followed a period of distribution and structural deterioration.

If the pattern continues to unfold similarly:

• The cycle top forms
• A prolonged corrective phase develops
• Capitulation accelerates into late-stage weakness
• A bottom forms several months later

Based on the fractal alignment shown in the chart, that window points toward October.

Repetition or Divergence?

Fractal models are not predictive guarantees. They assume structural similarity across cycles, an assumption that may or may not hold as market maturity increases.

Bitcoin’s liquidity structure, institutional participation, and derivatives markets have evolved significantly compared to earlier cycles. That evolution can alter timing dynamics.

However, historical repetition in Bitcoin has been strong enough that cycle-based timing models continue to attract attention.

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What Would Confirm a Bottom?

Regardless of the month, structural confirmation would require:

• A slowdown in downside momentum
• Reduced liquidation pressure
• Stabilization in realized losses
• Sustained accumulation behavior

If those conditions align near October, the fractal thesis gains credibility. If structural weakness persists beyond that window, the cycle could extend.

For now, the model suggests that if historical rhythm repeats, Bitcoin’s cycle bottom may not be immediate, but could emerge later in the year. Confirmation, as always, will matter more than timing projections.

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