ASTER is maintaining the uptrend with HH/HL structure but is testing swing lows with the 4.40% drop in the last 24 hours. Structure break (BOS) is possible at lower levels, while a break above upper resistance will give a continuation signal.
Market Structure Overview
ASTER’s current market structure reflects an overall uptrend. The price is trading at $0.69 and remains above EMA20 ($0.68), maintaining a short-term bullish outlook. However, the 4.40% drop over 24 hours is approaching the lower range boundary at $0.69, testing the structure. The higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern is supported by swing points formed in recent weeks: latest swing high $0.7118, swing lows $0.6800 and $0.6179. This structure meets the classic uptrend definition – each new high exceeds previous highs, and lows rise to form support. In MTF analysis (1D/3D/1W), 11 strong levels were identified: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 4 supports/3 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. RSI at 53.27 is neutral, MACD shows bullish signal with positive histogram. Supertrend is bearish and points to $0.87 resistance, reminding of short-term risk. Structure integrity depends on holding these levels.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
The uptrend is confirmed by a clear HH/HL pattern. The latest swing high at $0.7118 exceeded previous highs, forming HH. HL was also seen in swing lows: rise from $0.6179 to $0.6800 strengthened the structure. Price staying above EMA20 ($0.68) supports short-term momentum. MACD’s bullish histogram indicates momentum is still upward. As long as this structure holds, $1.0235 target (score:31) is possible – BOS above $0.7118 will confirm. Educational note: HH/HL shows buyers in control; each HL acts as support to sustain the trend.
Downtrend Risk
For a downtrend, LH/LL pattern is awaited. The latest drop from $0.73 to $0.69 threatens the $0.6800 swing low. If this level breaks (BOS), LH forms and decline accelerates to $0.6179. Supertrend bearish signal and BTC downtrend increase risk. $0.4030 bearish target (score:48) activates with lower BOS. For CHoCH (Change of Character), close below $0.6800 is required – this invalidates the uptrend. Attention: If LH/LL starts, previous HHs turn into resistance.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Main BOS levels are critical: Bullish BOS at $0.7118 swing high break (score:66/100) confirms trend continuation and opens path to $0.87 Supertrend resistance. Bearish BOS below $0.6800 (score:60/100) – this breaks HL and starts LH/LL. Deeper break below $0.6179 (score:71/100) triggers CHoCH. In MTF, 1W resistance break ($0.87+) targets long-term HH. Education: BOS is the first signal of trend change; swing point break invalidates structure. These levels are key for stop-loss and entry.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Latest Swing Highs
Latest swing high $0.7118 (score:66/100) is the uptrend peak and main resistance. This level tests buyer volume – break renews HH. Previous highs (range top $0.73) acted as resistance during pullback. Importance: These swings are the gate for bullish BOS; if not held, LH risk increases. As price approaches this target from $0.69, watch for volume increase.
Latest Swing Lows
Latest swing low $0.6800 (score:60/100) is short-term support – aligned with EMA20. Lower level $0.6179 (score:71/100) is strong HL and MTF support. If these lows hold, HL pattern continues. On break, decline to bearish targets accelerates. Education: Swing lows are buyers’ defense line; holding preserves bullish trend.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $67,480 in downtrend (%-1.61), Supertrend bearish. Main supports $66,988/$64,355, resistance $68,045. BTC decline pressures altcoins like ASTER – correlation high. BTC BOS below $66,988 could trigger ASTER $0.6800 break. Conversely, BTC break above $68,045 opens door to altcoin rally. Dominance rise risks BTC-only rally without alts: ASTER structure vulnerable until BTC holds support. Watch: BTC deep drop to $60,000 drags ASTER to $0.4030.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Structural outlook is bullish (HH/HL), but in short-term testing phase. $0.6800-$0.7118 range is critical; upper BOS for trend continuation, lower BOS for reversal signal. MTF supports balanced, MACD/RSI bullish. No news, pure structure focus: Structure intact, path to $1.0235; cautious on break. Educational summary: Trend depends on swings – watch BOS, await CHoCH. For spot, check ASTER Spot Analysis, for futures ASTER Futures Analysis. (Word count: ~1050)
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/aster-technical-analysis-february-22-2026-market-structure
