Hedera (HBAR) has dropped about 3.5% in the past 24 hours, even as it holds nearly 6% weekly gains. This reflects a growing conflict between buyers and sellers. Now, a familiar HBAR price warning sign has appeared again.
The same signal, quite recently, triggered a 40%+ crash. But this time, trader positioning, demand strength, and technical support levels suggest the outcome may not unfold the same way.
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Hedera Price Forms Bullish Wedge — But Bearish Divergence Returns
Hedera is currently trading inside a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart. A falling wedge forms when the price moves between two downward-sloping trendlines that slowly converge. This structure often signals a future breakout because selling pressure gradually weakens.
HBAR’s recent weekly gains reflect this recovery attempt. The price has been pushing toward the upper resistance of the wedge. This shows buyers are trying to regain control.
However, another signal beneath the surface shows a warning. Between November 23 and February 17, Hedera’s price made a lower high. This means the recovery failed to reach the previous peak. But during the same period, the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, a momentum indicator, made a higher high.
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This is called a hidden bearish divergence. A hidden bearish divergence shows that sellers remain in control during a recovery. Momentum rises, but price fails to reach a higher high. This usually signals that the broader downtrend may continue.
This same signal appeared earlier between November 23 and January 14. That warning was followed by a sharp 44% crash. This history raises the risk that Hedera could face another pullback. But this time, key underlying conditions look very different.
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Open Interest, EMA Resistance, and Dip Buyers Show a Different Structure
The previous crash was fueled by excessive bullish positioning.
On January 14 (when the last divergence finalized), Hedera’s open interest stood near $68 million. Open interest measures the total value of active futures positions. High open interest means many traders are using leverage. At the same time, funding rates were positive. Positive funding means most traders were betting on higher prices.
Leverage in January: SantimentThis created a dangerous situation. When the price started falling, long traders were forced to close positions. This triggered liquidations that accelerated the crash. Today, the structure looks different.
Open interest is now around $61 million, lower than the previous peak, even though HBAR keeps weekly gains. More importantly, funding rates remain negative. Negative funding means traders are not aggressively betting on price increases.
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Leverage In February: SantimentThis reduces the risk of a large liquidation cascade. Technical positioning also explains trader caution.
HBAR is currently trading near its 20-day exponential moving average, or EMA. The EMA acts as dynamic resistance. In January, breaking below this level accelerated the crash. Traders now appear more cautious near this same zone.
At the same time, demand strength is improving. The Money Flow Index, or MFI, measures real capital entering the asset, also used as a dip buying proxy. In January, MFI fell sharply after the divergence appeared. This showed buyers were leaving the market.
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Now, MFI is rising even as warning signals appear and prices correct. This shows dip buyers are stepping in. Buyers are absorbing selling pressure instead of exiting. This demand support could help prevent a large crash from repeating in the same way.
HBAR Price Levels To Track Next
HBAR is now trading near critical decision levels. The first key support sits near $0.092, if the 20-day EMA support breaks. This level previously acted as resistance before turning into support.
If this level holds, Hedera may continue stabilizing. Below this, the next support sits near $0.083. A deeper decline could extend toward $0.068 if selling pressure increases.
HBAR Price Analysis: TradingViewOn the upside, recovery requires reclaiming $0.107. This level marks the wedge resistance and a key breakout zone. If the HBAR price moves above this level, it could open the path toward $0.124 and potentially higher.
For now, Hedera faces a familiar warning signal. But trader positioning, dip-buying strength, and technical support show that the outcome may not mirror the previous crash. The next move above $0.107 or below $0.092 will likely decide Hedera’s direction.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/hbar-price-crash-history-outcome-prediction/
