Although TON’s market structure is in a general downtrend, it shows recovery above the short-term EMA20; the question of whether the trend continues or changes with CHoCH depends on key BOS levels.
Market Structure Overview
TON’s current market structure exhibits a clear downtrend in higher timeframes (1D, 3D, and 1W). This structure is defined by consecutive Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL); for example, the last swing highs were rejected at the $1.5213 level and price pulled back to $1.2427 making new lows. However, in the short-term (1H-4H) frame, price bounced from $1.39 to $1.48 and settled above EMA20 ($1.43). RSI at 50.13 is neutral, MACD gives a mild bullish signal with a positive histogram. In total, 12 strong levels have been detected: 3 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 3S/2R on 1W. This indicates the structure is still fragile and any BOS will clarify the trend. Price is currently at $1.46, trading in the $1.39-$1.48 range with a 24-hour +4.45% gain. Structural integrity requires holding the $1.3468 support for the LH/LL pattern to continue; below it, a bearish CHoCH occurs.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
For an uptrend, Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) formation is required. Recently, there is HL potential above $1.4067 ($66/100) from the $1.3468 ($70/100) swing low bounce; price has broken EMA20, establishing a short-term bullish structure. The positive MACD histogram and RSI’s shift from neutral above 50 support momentum. For HH, $1.4565 ($74/100) and $1.5213 ($79/100) swing highs must be surpassed – this triggers a bullish CHoCH from the downtrend. Bullish target $2.0492 ($49 score), but a clear BOS is required to invalidate the current LH/LL. The short-term +4.45% move signals altcoin rally potential.
Downtrend Risk
Downtrend is dominant: LH/LL structure is strong, Supertrend is bearish, and $1.72 resistance is dominant. After the $1.5213 swing high rejection, LLs formed at $1.4067 and $1.2427 ($60/100). Even if price tests $1.4565, it hasn’t broken; below it, LH continues. Bearish target $0.8408 ($22 score). Risk: If $1.3468 breaks, trend accelerates with a new LL, confirming bearish CHoCH.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Bullish BOS: Break above $1.4565 swing high on close (first confirmation), full bullish requires surpassing $1.5213 – this invalidates LH, heralding a shift to HH/HL structure. Bearish BOS: Close below $1.3468 ($70/100) confirms LL and opens path to $1.2427; accelerates if $1.4067 breaks. These levels are strong on MTF (1D/3D/1W), so volume confirmation is essential. Without BOS, range continues ($1.39-$1.48).
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
$1.5213 (79/100): Main resistance, LH peak – breakout starts HH, trend reversal signal. $1.4565 (74/100): Near resistance, rejection on test confirms LH, short bias below. These points align with fib retracements, weakening with declining volume.
Recent Swing Lows
$1.3468 (70/100): Critical support, HL candidate – hold bullish, break leads to LL and bearish cascade. $1.4067 (66/100): Medium support, recent bounce source. $1.2427 (60/100): Deep support, 1W level on MTF – last line of defense.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $68,841 (+3.90%), in downtrend with Supertrend bearish; rising dominance crushes altcoins. TON is highly correlated with BTC: If BTC breaks $68,790 support, TON tests $1.3468. If BTC surpasses $71,248 resistance, it opens room for TON bullish BOS ($1.5213 target). BTC drop to $65,415-$60,000 accelerates TON bearish target $0.8408. Watch BTC keys: Above $71,248R alt rally, below caution. Details for TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall bearish LH/LL structure dominates, but short-term HL and momentum above EMA20 carry reversal potential. BOS levels are decisive: Above $1.5213 bullish CHoCH, below $1.3468 bearish continuation. Strong MTF supports protect the range, BTC correlation critical. Speculative without structural break; educationally, patience for HH/HL, stops essential against LL risk. Market is volatile, monitor levels.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/ton-technical-analysis-february-14-2026-market-structure
