Key Insights:
- Polymarket gives Bitcoin a 31% chance of dropping to $55K before the month ends.
- Whale buyers return as CVD shows rising large-order activity and low sell-side resistance.
- BTC tests falling wedge resistance at $73K with next moves toward $80K or $54K.
Bitcoin traders are assigning a 31% probability that BTC will fall to $55,000 before the end of the month, according to data from Polymarket. That number is down from a recent peak of nearly 50%, following a short-term recovery in price.
The shift suggests some easing in bearish sentiment, but the risk is still being priced in. The level around $55K remains a key area, both technically and psychologically. A move to that range would mark a deeper pullback within the current downtrend.
Large Buyers Step In as Order Flow Shifts
Fresh on-chain data shows buying activity picking up, especially from large trades. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator confirms increased volume in the $1M to $10M bracket, suggesting that whales are accumulating. Other ranges, including $100K to $1M, are also seeing net inflows.
At the same time, the order book shows little resistance above the current price. Liquidity is thin on the sell side, allowing for smoother upward movement.
According to CW,
BTC Tests $73K Resistance in Wedge Formation
Bitcoin has bounced from around $56,717 and is now trading near $70,000, with the upper trendline of a falling wedge sitting just above at $73,263. This zone is acting as immediate resistance and could define the next move.
CryptoTA_King wrote,
Source: CryptoTA_King/XA clean move above $73K could shift momentum higher, while failure may send price lower again.
Price Recovers, Sentiment Remains Split
Bitcoin was priced at $69,282, showing a 4.5% gain over the past 24 hours. Despite the short-term rebound, the 7-day performance still shows a 16.3% decline. The mixed readings in sentiment and technical setups are keeping traders cautious.
The next few sessions may be critical. Whether BTC breaks through resistance or turns lower could shape how the rest of the month plays out.
DISCLAIMER: The information on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to do your own research before investing.
Source: https://coincu.com/analysis/bitcoin-crash-ahead-31-say-55k-still/
