Analysis: The number of unemployed in the United States has reached a 17-year high, sending a positive signal to Bitcoin bulls.

PANews reported on February 6th that, according to CoinDesk, the number of planned layoffs in the US surged to 108,435 in January, the highest level since January 2009, representing a 205% increase month-over-month and a 118% increase year-over-year. This data contrasts sharply with the still resilient official non-farm payroll report and is seen as an early sign of a rapidly cooling labor market. Human resources firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas pointed out that many of the layoff plans are scheduled for the end of 2025, reflecting employers' pessimistic outlook for 2026. Simultaneously, Truflation, a blockchain-based real-time inflation indicator, showed that the US inflation rate has plummeted to below 1%, far below the official CPI data. These unofficial indicators collectively suggest that economic growth is slowing, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to support the economy.

Analysts are divided on their expectations for the Federal Reserve's future policy. JPMorgan Chase predicts interest rates will remain unchanged until 2027, while other banks forecast at least two rate cuts this year. Some economists expect Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for Fed chair, to cut rates by 100 basis points before the November midterm elections. The market believes that a potential shift in monetary policy could provide support for risk assets such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin's price has since fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 last October.