A strong downtrend dominates ARB; consecutive lower highs and lower lows keep the structure clearly bearish, while oversold RSI increases the possibility of a short-term change of character (CHoCH)?
Market Structure Overview
ARB’s current market structure exhibits classic downtrend characteristics. The recent series of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) confirms the bearish direction of the trend. The price experienced a sharp drop from $0.13 levels to $0.11, reflecting aggressive selling pressure with a 24-hour change of -16.21%. The price, unable to hold above EMA20 ($0.16), maintains the short-term bearish EMA structure. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 8 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistances on 1W predominantly. Supertrend gives a bearish signal and the $0.16 resistance remains strong. Although RSI at 16.90 is in the oversold region, the MACD’s negative histogram shows momentum is downward. This structure signals a search for lower lows for trend continuation, while any higher high (HH) formation could question the structure.
Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?
Uptrend Signals
A series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) is required for an uptrend. There is no such structure in ARB at the moment; the last swing low held at $0.1061 but no new HL has formed. Oversold RSI (16.90) may prepare the ground for a short-term bounce, but a bullish structure does not begin without breaking EMA20 ($0.16). Although the potential bullish continuation target is $0.1911 (score:50), overcoming the $0.1150 and $0.1238 resistances is mandatory to reach these levels. If the price breaks $0.1150 with a daily close, this could initiate an HL structure as a BOS (Break of Structure) and signal a trend reversal.
Downtrend Risk
The downtrend is clear: The last lower high at $0.1150 (score:83/100), followed by a $0.11 lower low confirming LL. The previous swing high at $0.1238 (score:66/100) was not surpassed, strengthening the LH/LL structure. Supertrend is bearish and MACD histogram is negative; if price breaks $0.1061 support, the trend deepens with a new LL. Bearish breakdown target is $0.0138 (score:22), to be monitored in the aggressive scenario. The 1W timeframe’s 3 resistances support the long-term downtrend.
Structure Break (BOS) Levels
Structure break (BOS) confirms trend change. For bearish BOS, the critical level is $0.1061 swing low: If broken, downtrend is confirmed with a new LL, opening the path to $0.0138. For bullish BOS, breaking $0.1150 swing high is essential; if surpassed with daily/4H close, LH structure is disrupted and CHoCH begins. For stronger confirmation, monitor $0.1238 and EMA20 ($0.16). These levels are strong in MTF: $0.1150 is the main resistance on 1D. Breakout should be supported by volume; otherwise, fakeout risk exists. Check ARB Spot Analysis for spot trading, ARB Futures Analysis for futures.
Swing Points and Their Importance
Recent Swing Highs
The last swing high at $0.1150 (score:83/100) acts as strong LH resistance. This level formed the LH structure by staying below the previous $0.1238 (score:66/100). Upside remains limited without breaking $0.1150; this point is an ideal target for short positions. Additional resistances on the 3D timeframe fuel the downtrend.
Recent Swing Lows
The last swing low at $0.1061 (score:78/100) is the main support. This level was confirmed as LL; if broken, bearish momentum accelerates. Previous lows also support the decline sequence. For HL, price needs to hold above $0.11 and avoid new lows, but it’s difficult in the current structure.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $63,612 with a 24h -13.45% drop in downtrend; key supports $64,324/$61,368/$58,337, resistances $67,354/$69,946/$83,164. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance creates pressure on altcoins. ARB is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC breaks $61,368, ARB’s $0.1061 test increases. ARB bullish BOS is hard without BTC recovery; watch for BTC above $67,354 for altseason signal.
Structural Outlook and Expectations
Overall structure is bearish LH/LL; $0.1061 break is expected for downtrend continuation. Bullish scenario starts with $0.1150 BOS, targeting $0.1911. Although RSI is oversold, volume-less bounces do not disrupt the structure. MTF resistance dominance requires caution. Structures are dynamic; follow swing points. (Word count: ~1050)
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/arb-technical-analysis-february-5-2026-market-structure
