Bitcoin Pullbacks Tied to Rising Global Risk, Not Crypto Weakness: XWIN Research

The ongoing Bitcoin pullbacks may be less about crypto-specific weakness and more about rising global economic risk.

This view was shared in new research from Japan-based XWIN Research. The firm argues that renewed tariff pressure linked to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade stance has become a clear downside factor for Bitcoin since 2025.

Tariff Pressure Reduces Risk Appetite

XWIN Research notes that tariffs directly affect corporate earnings, inflation expectations, and monetary policy outlooks. As these pressures build, overall risk appetite tends to decline, leaving risk assets like Bitcoin more exposed to price corrections.

Since 2025, several Bitcoin downturns have coincided with periods of heightened trade tension and tariff hikes. During these phases, Bitcoin moved lower alongside equities, supporting the view that it is still treated as a macro-sensitive asset rather than a defensive hedge.

Bitcoin Still Trades Like a Risk Asset

The report highlights that economic uncertainty impacts Bitcoin because investor behavior adjusts quickly when growth and interest-rate expectations shift. In such environments, investors often reduce short-term exposure to limit portfolio risk.

Due to its liquidity, investors frequently use Bitcoin as a temporary risk-reduction tool. Rather than holding it strictly as a long-term store of value during uncertain periods, they often sell alongside other risk assets.

Exchange Netflows Show Temporary Selling

XWIN Research also examined exchange netflow data for additional insight. During correction phases, it observed brief increases in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, consistent with short-term adjustments.

However, these inflows did not persist. This suggests there has been no sustained selling pressure so far, supporting the idea that recent declines are due more to macro uncertainty than long-term bearish sentiment.

Base Case: Macro Risk Still a Headwind

For now, XWIN Research maintains that rising economic risk tied to Trump’s tariff shocks remains a key factor weighing on Bitcoin prices. The firm notes that this view would change only if exchange inflows rise consistently and supply-demand indicators weaken.

Until then, Bitcoin’s price action will align closely with shifts in global risk sentiment rather than a breakdown in its long-term fundamentals.

BTC Price and Gold’s Historic Move

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $90,250, down 0.62% over the past day as it attempts to recover after touching $87,500 earlier today. At its current price, Bitcoin is down 7% over the past week and 13% over the past year.

Bitcoin chart | CoinMarketCap

Meanwhile, during the same period, while Bitcoin’s price dipped, gold continued to set new all-time highs. Today, gold reached a peak of $4,890 following a five-day gain of 4.77%. Over the past year, gold has been up 12%, while Bitcoin has remained in negative territory.

This disparity suggests that investors are increasingly moving into gold as a safe haven while cutting exposure to Bitcoin.