Analysts are split over their opinions on Bitcoin’s behavior as it continues to struggle under $100,000

Bitcoin has been struggling under $100,000 now for a few days, and spooked retail holders have become sellers, offloading their stash to larger whales and institutional investors who analysts now believe are the only ones who can end the carnage, stabilize the markets, and perhaps even push it to a new all-time high. 

The only certainty in this market is that BTC is under $100,000, and analysts have different rationales for the dip. Some claim that the smart money has taken advantage of the dips in BTC to increase their holdings, and some argue that this is just a short-term re-shuffling of the asset into stickier hands.

However, a Cryptoquant analyst claims that not only are retail holders selling, but the whales that have been sustaining the frontlines seem to be tiring too.

Bitcoin futures trading activity level tracked through trading frequency surges. Source: CryptoQuant

Whales can’t buy retail sales fast enough

According to the post, the Bitcoin Futures Average Order Size, calculated by dividing total trading volume by the number of trades, has signaled reduced whale participation and continues to do so. Meanwhile, smaller, retail-driven transactions have maintained dominance, culminating in a market structure that does not support strong upward price momentum, a view the Futures Volume Bubble Map reinforces.

“The market has shifted from a cooling phase to a neutral environment, characterized by even lower trading activity compared to two months ago,” the CryptoQuant post reads. “This persistent decline in futures engagement provides little support for a bullish reversal.”

As things stand, the analyst behind the post says the Futures Retail Activity Through Trading Frequency Surge indicates that the number of active retail participants now counts as “few,” which suggests that market liquidity and activity are showing weakness on both sides of the spectrum: “whales remain absent, and retailers are no longer providing sufficient volume to sustain momentum.”

Bitcoin futures volume bubble map. Source: CryptoQuant

Panic has not set in for seasoned analysts

According to CoinMarketCap, options pricing currently thinks there is only a 30% probability that Bitcoin meets the new year above $100,000, and that same data shows a 50% chance the asset ends this year below $90,000, with Ethereum markets mirroring the same gloomy outlook with its 50% probability of closing under $2,900.

Timothy Misir from BRN Research has called the situation a crossroad for BTC, and many factors will determine where it goes from here. According to Dr. Sean Dawson from Derive.xyz, both short-term and long-term volatility have surged together over the past two weeks, marking a new volatility regime.

Thirty-day implied volatility has also reportedly climbed from 41% to 49%, while six-month volatility rose from 46% to 49% simultaneously. The parallel increase is significant because long-term volatility typically moves more slowly unless traders are hedging sustained macro uncertainty.

Dawson believes the macro backdrop simply is not giving traders enough reasons to remain bullish into the close of the year.

21Shares has also maintained that structural fundamentals remain intact and that the selling pressure is simply a means of redistributing tokens from short to long-term holders. The firm has outlined $98,000 to $100,000 as the area of primary resistance and $85,000 as the first major support, with deeper demand sitting around $75,000 to $80,000 if the lower level breaks.

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