Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is This BTC’s Biggest Test Since the 2025 Crash?

Key highlights:

• Bitcoin is testing the critical $76,000-$80,000 resistance zone after recovering above its 100-day moving average.
• Glassnode data shows Bitcoin network activity remains cautious, with active addresses still below previous rally levels.
• Traders are watching for a breakout above $80,000 that could reopen the path toward $88,500.

Bitcoin is once again approaching one of the most significant areas on the chart. After a strong downtrend from the recent peak at $110,000 at the 2025 time frame, Bitcoin bulls are now making efforts to move past the $76,000-$80,000 range, with a lot of focus on this region.

It is also worth mentioning that Bitcoin bulls were able to move past some major technical levels. At the time of writing, BTC was trading just above the $72,800 price mark which is the daily 100-day moving average, with eyes on the $78,000-$80,000 price range.

Bitcoin is testing a massive macro resistance zone

Crypto analyst Crypto King called this one of the biggest resistance regions on the macro chart right now. Many traders agree because Bitcoin has struggled to break above this area multiple times during the latest recovery attempts.

However, despite the pullback at the beginning of the year, everything else continues to look relatively positive. Bitcoin is still in an overarching multi-year uptrend, which many traders continue to see as a necessary consolidation phase following its massive run up from around $15,000 in 2023 to well above $100,000 in 2024.

It should also come as no surprise why there is so much focus on the $50,000-$55,000 support level. As seen on the chart, Bitcoin managed to bounce back from this area once before, making many believe it represents the necessary level to keep the overarching bullish trend intact.

With BTC managing to climb above $80,000 with significant volume, many may be expecting to see $100,000 coming into play once more.

BTC chart analysis

Daily BTC price chart analysis

4-hour BTC price chart analysis

After a look at the daily chart, we can see that Bitcoin continues trading below a descending trendline which has been acting as the price resistance since several months ago. The main resistance levels for BTC currently continue at around $76,857 to $80,000 range, with sellers still showing their presence in the market at these levels.

The structure of the short-term chart has started improving gradually. We checked out the 4-hour chart and saw that the BTC price recently experienced a bullish structure breakout from lower support regions in the mid-$60,000 range.

Currently, the BTC/USD pair is testing the 100-period moving average at $78,629. The RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart rose up to 54.96 levels without being in overbought territory.

Should the bulls manage to capture the key $78,600-$80,000 range strongly, then it is quite obvious that the next resistance target for traders would be around the $82,000 range, followed by the Fibonacci resistance at $88,500 range.

However, the market still needs confirmation. Should the price get rejected again near resistance, then it would be easy for the price to retest the $72,000-$70,000 region.

On-chain activity still looks cautious

Although the BTC price is high relative to past trends, on-chain signals are still mixed. According to Glassnode data, active Bitcoin addresses are declining to around 490,000-500,000, among the weakest levels for the current consolidation phase. In the earlier rally periods, active addresses were trading between 600,000-680,000.

That slowdown usually points to weaker retail participation. During aggressive bull markets, rising prices are normally supported by increasing user activity across the network. Transaction data looks slightly better. 

The 14-day exponential moving average on BTC transactions is now showing signs of rebounding from its weakness observed during the period of correction. The beginning of recovery on transaction volume is being perceived by some as the first indicator of stabilization on the network.

Macro conditions are still helping Bitcoin

Outside the charts, several macro developments are still supporting the bigger Bitcoin narrative. One of the biggest discussions came after BitMEX analyst Shang Wu linked rising government debt and higher bond yields to a possible Bitcoin supercycle in the future.

The U.S. national debt has already climbed above $39 trillion, and the 30-year Treasury yield moved toward 5.14%. Some investors believe these conditions could eventually push more capital into Bitcoin as a fixed-supply asset.

The Federal Reserve narrative also shifted slightly after incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hinted that AI-driven productivity growth could eventually create room for future interest rate cuts. Low rates have traditionally proven good for liquidity-sensitive investments such as Bitcoin since low-interest-rate environments result in investors having more interest in investing in risky assets.

Also, the adoption of Bitcoin is increasing on a global scale. Recently, an integration of the purchasing of bitcoins into the ChatGPT application by MoonPay occurred.

Can the BTC price finally break above $80,000?

Right now, the BTC price is trading at a very important decision point. The bullish scenario is simple. If Bitcoin manages to break above the $80,000 resistance zone and hold it successfully, traders will likely begin targeting the $88,500 region next. 

The bearish setup is also clear. If Bitcoin gets rejected again and momentum weakens, the market could revisit lower support levels near $72,000, $65,000, or even the larger macro support zone near $50,000.

According to CoinCodex’s 1-month BTC price prediction, the BTC price could move toward $79,599, which is close to current levels and shows that some analysts still expect Bitcoin to remain stuck near this major resistance zone before the next larger move develops.

Kraken: Best crypto exchange for security & reliability

• Buy, sell, and trade 400+ cryptocurrencies with industry-leading security
• Spot, Futures & Margin trading – leverage up to 5x for advanced traders
• Earn rewards with staking on top cryptocurrencies
• 24/7 customer support and high liquidity for fast trades
• Regulated in the US with strong compliance and security measures
• 13+ million users worldwide

Get Started on Kraken

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Nothing on this page is a recommendation or solicitation. Always seek independent professional advice before making investment decisions. Some links may earn us a commission at no extra cost to you.