Home Depot (HD) Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Q1 Earnings Today

TLDR

• Home Depot reports Q1 FY2026 earnings before the bell on Tuesday, May 19
• Wall Street expects EPS of $3.41, down 4.2–4.3% year-over-year, with revenue of ~$41.6 billion, up ~4.4%
• HD stock has fallen more than 12% in 2026 and 21% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500
• Options traders are pricing in a ~4.88% move in either direction post-earnings
• Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus with an average price target of $403.58, implying ~35% upside

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Home Depot is due to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results before the market opens Tuesday, May 19.

HD stock is trading around $299, down more than 12% since the start of 2026. Over the past year, it has dropped roughly 21%. That compares poorly to the S&P 500, which is up nearly 8% year-to-date.

The Home Depot, Inc., HD

Expectations heading into the print are low. Wall Street is forecasting EPS of $3.41, a year-over-year decline of about 4.2%. Revenue is expected to come in at $41.6 billion, up 4.4%.

The soft outlook is no surprise. A sluggish housing market has been a persistent drag on the home improvement sector, and that story hasn’t changed much.

High mortgage rates have kept would-be buyers on the sidelines, and the hoped-for pivot toward remodeling over moving hasn’t materialized at the scale investors were hoping for.

Inflation running at three-year highs and wages not keeping up have added to the pressure. Consumers are being careful with their wallets, and that’s showing up in home improvement spending.

Oppenheimer analyst Brian Nagel flagged concern ahead of the report, noting that macro headwinds may be getting harder as rates move higher and consumer confidence softens.

What Analysts Are Saying

Bernstein’s Zhihan Ma kept a Buy rating but trimmed his price target to $281 from $303. He expects comparable sales to come in on the higher side, partly aided by the SRS acquisition and repair work tied to winter storms.

Piper Sandler’s Peter Keith also held his Buy rating and nudged his target down slightly to $421 from $422. He noted that consumer spending has held up despite higher gas prices, but says there is no clear sign that tax refunds boosted retail sales — suggesting that money was saved rather than spent.

Keith’s read is that weak sales trends from Q4 2025 likely continued into Q1 for home improvement retailers.

Options Traders Are Bracing for a Bigger Move

Options markets are implying a move of roughly 4.88% in either direction following the earnings release. That is well above HD’s average post-earnings move of 2.95% over the last four quarters, suggesting traders expect a bigger reaction than usual.

Investors will also be watching for any update to full-year guidance. Management previously guided for comparable sales growth of flat to up 2% for the full year, and analysts don’t expect that range to be revised at this stage.

Despite all of this, Wall Street hasn’t given up on HD. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus from 16 analysts, with five Holds and no Sells. The average price target of $403.58 implies roughly 35% upside from current levels. HD also offers a dividend yield of around 3%.

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