AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock Surges 12% Before Q1 Earnings: Analyst Forecasts Inside

Key Takeaways

• AST SpaceMobile shares climbed 12.15% Monday before its Q1 2026 quarterly results, scheduled for release after market close
• Wall Street consensus calls for a $0.2125 per-share loss with $37.5 million in quarterly revenue
• The company lost a BlueBird 7 satellite following a Blue Origin launch malfunction; insurance coverage anticipated
• Rising rivalry from Amazon’s $10.8 billion Globalstar acquisition and SpaceX’s Starlink platform intensifies market dynamics
• Implied volatility suggests a roughly 12.1% price swing following the earnings announcement

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Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) surged more than 12% during Monday’s session, reaching $75.05, as market participants braced for the company’s first-quarter 2026 financial results set to drop after the closing bell.

AST SpaceMobile, Inc., ASTS

Despite Monday’s strong performance, the stock remains significantly below its 52-week peak of $129.89, indicating substantial ground left to recover.

Analyst consensus points to a quarterly loss of $0.2125 per share alongside revenue of $37.5 million for the March period. These figures would represent progress from the previous quarter’s $0.26 loss per share, although revenue is projected to decline from the $54.3 million recorded in Q4.

Per-share loss estimates have deteriorated by 15.1% during the last two months, reflecting increasing analyst skepticism ahead of the results.

Launch Failure Raises Questions About Deployment Strategy

A failed Blue Origin New Glenn rocket mission last month resulted in AST‘s BlueBird 7 satellite being placed in an incorrect orbit. The satellite has since reentered the atmosphere and is classified as a complete loss, although the company confirms insurance will cover the incident.

Initial projections called for deploying 45 to 60 satellites throughout this year. Industry analyst Tim Farrar now forecasts actual deployments between 21 and 42 units, complicated by the FAA’s current grounding of the launch vehicle.

Market observers will pay close attention to any guidance updates regarding adjusted deployment schedules and backup launch provider arrangements.

Company leadership previously established a 2026 revenue goal ranging from $150 million to $200 million, banking on accelerated commercial launches during the year’s latter half. Wall Street projects revenue could hit $1 billion in 2027.

Amazon and SpaceX Intensify Direct-to-Device Battle

Competitive dynamics have evolved rapidly. Amazon’s approximately $10.8 billion deal to purchase Globalstar represents a major entry into satellite-to-device communications. Deutsche Bank subsequently lowered its AST price target, anticipating increased pricing competition.

SpaceX’s Starlink platform maintains market leadership and currently operates commercial services in partnership with T-Mobile.

Industry forecasts project the direct-to-device sector will expand from $570 million in 2025 to $2.64 billion by 2030, underscoring the importance of successful execution.

Among 10 analysts tracking ASTS, three maintain buy ratings, five recommend holding, and two advise selling. The average price target stands at $83.90, suggesting approximately 12% potential upside from current trading levels. Price targets span from Scotiabank’s $41.20 to Clear Street’s $115.

Options trading volume ahead of earnings runs at 1.6 times typical levels, with call options outnumbering puts by a 3-to-1 margin. Derivatives markets indicate an expected price movement of approximately 12.1%, or roughly $10, following the earnings release. Historical data shows a median 9% post-earnings move across the previous eight quarters.

The broader space technology sector also posted gains Monday, contributing momentum to ASTS’s advance.

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