PANews reported on September 18th that, according to Decrypt, a new academic paper revealed systematic pricing biases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, allowing arbitrageurs to profit from it by over $40 million in a single year. The paper, titled "Unraveling the Probability Forest: Arbitrage Opportunities in Prediction Markets," analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025 and found pricing errors in over 7,000 markets. The research identified two primary arbitrage patterns: one where the sum of "yes/no" share prices in the same market deviates from the theoretical value of $1; and the other where probability divergences occur in logically related markets (such as "Trump wins" and "Republicans win"). By simultaneously buying and selling related contracts, traders can achieve risk-free returns. While arbitrage activity ultimately leads to market price inequality, research indicates that pricing misalignments can persist for hours. This phenomenon is not limited to Polymarket but also occurs on regulated platforms such as Kalshi.PANews reported on September 18th that, according to Decrypt, a new academic paper revealed systematic pricing biases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, allowing arbitrageurs to profit from it by over $40 million in a single year. The paper, titled "Unraveling the Probability Forest: Arbitrage Opportunities in Prediction Markets," analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025 and found pricing errors in over 7,000 markets. The research identified two primary arbitrage patterns: one where the sum of "yes/no" share prices in the same market deviates from the theoretical value of $1; and the other where probability divergences occur in logically related markets (such as "Trump wins" and "Republicans win"). By simultaneously buying and selling related contracts, traders can achieve risk-free returns. While arbitrage activity ultimately leads to market price inequality, research indicates that pricing misalignments can persist for hours. This phenomenon is not limited to Polymarket but also occurs on regulated platforms such as Kalshi.
Arbitrageurs profited over $40 million from pricing mismatches on Polymarket in a single year.
Bu içerikle ilgili geri bildirim veya endişeleriniz için lütfen crypto.news@mexc.com üzerinden bizimle iletişime geçin.
PANews reported on September 18th that, according to Decrypt, a new academic paper revealed systematic pricing biases on the prediction market platform Polymarket, allowing arbitrageurs to profit from it by over $40 million in a single year. The paper, titled "Unraveling the Probability Forest: Arbitrage Opportunities in Prediction Markets," analyzed data from April 2024 to April 2025 and found pricing errors in over 7,000 markets. The research identified two primary arbitrage patterns: one where the sum of "yes/no" share prices in the same market deviates from the theoretical value of $1; and the other where probability divergences occur in logically related markets (such as "Trump wins" and "Republicans win"). By simultaneously buying and selling related contracts, traders can achieve risk-free returns. While arbitrage activity ultimately leads to market price inequality, research indicates that pricing misalignments can persist for hours. This phenomenon is not limited to Polymarket but also occurs on regulated platforms such as Kalshi.
Piyasa Fırsatı
OFFICIAL TRUMP Fiyatı(TRUMP)
$2.928
$2.928$2.928
USD
OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) Canlı Fiyat Grafiği
Sorumluluk Reddi: Bu sitede yeniden yayınlanan makaleler, halka açık platformlardan alınmıştır ve yalnızca bilgilendirme amaçlıdır. MEXC'nin görüşlerini yansıtmayabilir. Tüm hakları telif sahiplerine aittir. Herhangi bir içeriğin üçüncü taraf haklarını ihlal ettiğini düşünüyorsanız, kaldırılması için lütfen crypto.news@mexc.com ile iletişime geçin. MEXC, içeriğin doğruluğu, eksiksizliği veya güncelliği konusunda hiçbir garanti vermez ve sağlanan bilgilere dayalı olarak alınan herhangi bir eylemden sorumlu değildir. İçerik, finansal, yasal veya diğer profesyonel tavsiye niteliğinde değildir ve MEXC tarafından bir tavsiye veya onay olarak değerlendirilmemelidir.
Ayrıca Şunları da Beğenebilirsiniz
‘Semi-shock’ Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF will be 44% cheaper than BlockRock’s IBIT!
The post ‘Semi-shock’ Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF will be 44% cheaper than BlockRock’s IBIT! appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. U.S Spot Bitcoin ETFs are gearing
Paylaş
BitcoinEthereumNews2026/03/29 06:06
Franklin Templeton CEO Dismisses 50bps Rate Cut Ahead FOMC
The post Franklin Templeton CEO Dismisses 50bps Rate Cut Ahead FOMC appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson has weighed in on whether the Federal Reserve should make a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut or 50 bps cut. This comes ahead of the Fed decision today at today’s FOMC meeting, with the market pricing in a 25 bps cut. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are currently trading flat ahead of the rate cut decision. Franklin Templeton CEO Weighs In On Potential FOMC Decision In a CNBC interview, Jenny Johnson said that she expects the Fed to make a 25 bps cut today instead of a 50 bps cut. She acknowledged the jobs data, which suggested that the labor market is weakening. However, she noted that this data is backward-looking, indicating that it doesn’t show the current state of the economy. She alluded to the wage growth, which she remarked is an indication of a robust labor market. She added that retail sales are up and that consumers are still spending, despite inflation being sticky at 3%, which makes a case for why the FOMC should opt against a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut. In line with this, the Franklin Templeton CEO said that she would go with a 25 bps rate cut if she were Jerome Powell. She remarked that the Fed still has the October and December FOMC meetings to make further cuts if the incoming data warrants it. Johnson also asserted that the data show a robust economy. However, she noted that there can’t be an argument for no Fed rate cut since Powell already signaled at Jackson Hole that they were likely to lower interest rates at this meeting due to concerns over a weakening labor market. Notably, her comment comes as experts argue for both sides on why the Fed should make a 25 bps cut or…
Paylaş
BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 00:36
Ethereum News: ETH Developers Tease Initiative To Boost Mainnet Speed
Key Insights: Ethereum news is back in focus as developers and community voices push a fresh idea to make the network faster. The plan centers on shorter slot times
Paylaş
Thecoinrepublic2026/03/29 06:45
