Despite the recent rebound, capitulation risks haven’t fully faded.
In fact, the most significant risk still appears to be institutional. Although Bitcoin [BTC] has stabilized, Strategy [MSTR] continues to trade 70% below its Q3 2025 levels, highlighting persistent balance sheet pressure.
As a result, unrealized losses remain material. Based on current estimates, MSTR is sitting on approximately $6 billion in unrealized losses across its 717k BTC holdings, acquired at an average cost of $76k. That’s roughly 11% above BTC’s current spot price.
Source: FactSet
Against this setup, trader positioning around MSTR begins to make sense.
As the chart above illustrates, Strategy has now become the most shorted stock in the market. The net short position stands near $4.85 billion, representing roughly 10-11% of its total market capitalization.
In simple terms, the market is leaning bearish. Elevated short interest in MSTR suggests that traders are positioning for further downside, even after the stock’s 70% drawdown. From a technical perspective, that bias isn’t entirely unreasonable, as the structure remains fragile.
That said, the timing of this positioning is key. If this rebound in Bitcoin proves to be more than just a liquidation reset and instead confirms a sustained bullish reversal, could further upside pressure MSTR shorts?
Record short interest in MSTR meets rising BTC momentum
The market seems to be repricing crypto momentum.
After a week of speculation around Jane Street’s alleged manipulation, the firm was recently sued, sparking what analysts are calling a repricing moment, especially now that the immediate selling pressure has eased.
The numbers back it up. Right after the news, BTC jumped $2,000, wiping out roughly $120 million in shorts in just 30 minutes. Altcoins followed, climbing about 3% across the board, while MSTR jumped 8.86%, marking its strongest single-day gain in over a week.
Source: TradingView (MSTR/USDT)
In this setup, bears are clearly on the back foot.
With institutional momentum gradually returning, the near-term Bitcoin short cluster (around $50 million in positions near $70k) is likely to become the bulls’ main focus, opening the door for BTC to push higher.
The result? MSTR, now approaching its $140 resistance, looks set for a breakout. This is where the record short interest becomes key: As market momentum builds, these MSTR shorts are at heightened risk of a squeeze.
In turn, this shows why MSTR’s BTC holdings are poised to expand in Q2.
Final Summary
- With $6 billion in unrealized losses across 717k BTC and record short interest, MSTR is technically fragile.
- Recent BTC gains put bears at risk, highlighting why MSTR’s BTC holdings are likely to grow further in Q2.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/4-85b-short-bets-meet-bitcoin-upside-is-mstr-primed-to-squeeze/
