- Bitcoin may test $55K as bear trends persist and short-term rallies lack momentum.
- Market consolidation could last months, with demand unable to outpace selling pressure.
- Institutional withdrawals and selective altcoin flows keep broader crypto rallies muted.
Bitcoin may slide toward $55,000 before any durable rebound takes shape, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. He argues that the market has already entered a confirmed bear cycle.
Moreover, he warns that any sustainable recovery could take several months. Despite massive capital inflows over the past year, the overall market value has failed to expand. Consequently, persistent selling pressure now defines the broader trend.
Ju believes the imbalance between demand and supply explains the stagnation. Hundreds of billions of dollars entered the market recently. However, total market capitalization remains flat or declines. Hence, sellers continue to overpower incoming capital.
He notes that previous downturns required at least three months of consolidation before sentiment improved. Additionally, he cautions traders against treating short-term rebounds as the start of a new bull run.
Two Possible Paths for Bitcoin
Ju outlines two scenarios for Bitcoin’s next phase. First, prices could drop toward the realized price of $55,000. This level reflects the average on-chain cost basis of holders. Historically, Bitcoin has revisited this zone before forming strong reversals. A decline toward that area could flush out weak hands and reset positioning.
Second, Bitcoin could remain stuck between $60,000 and $70,000 for months. In this case, the price would grind sideways before momentum returns.
Consequently, volatility would stay compressed while market participants wait for stronger catalysts. Ju stresses that ETF inflows have slowed sharply. Besides, over-the-counter demand has weakened. As a result, the conditions for a powerful rally remain absent.
Institutional Selling Weighs on Market
Ju attributes much of the pressure to institutional investors. As volatility declined, many funds rotated capital into assets like the Nasdaq and gold. Significantly, data from the CME show reduced institutional exposure. That reduction reflects capital withdrawal rather than bullish repositioning.
Additionally, Ju points to aggressive block sales executed within short timeframes. Such activity suggests forced liquidations or strategic unwinding. Consequently, large holders continue to shape price direction.
Altcoins face even steeper challenges. Fresh capital flows into only a few tokens tied to ETF narratives. Moreover, the broader altcoin market never surpassed its prior peak in a meaningful way. Funds appear to rotate within the ecosystem rather than expand it. Hence, the era of broad-based altcoin rallies seems over for now.
Related: “Milder” Bitcoin Downturn Will be Over Soon, Says Michael Saylor
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Source: https://coinedition.com/bitcoin-could-drop-to-55k-before-recovery-says-cryptoquant-ceo/
